Bitcoin Enters Bear Market Behavior, What On-Chain Metrics Are Showing

Описание: In this episode, Nik sits down with TBL on-chain analyst Johan Bergman to break down Bitcoin’s recent breakdown, sell-the-rip behavior, and the on-chain signals flashing bear market conditions. Johan walks through cost basis models, the AVIV Ratio Mean, short-term holder behavior, and why Bitcoin’s November trend break marked a major regime shift. They discuss ETF flows, forced selling, liquidation dynamics, and where real support may emerge next, while separating long-term conviction from short-term market reality.

📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.

🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today.

Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees.

🔨 Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/seed-p...

▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X:   / thebitcoinlayer  
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch

⛓️ ₿lock Height 934791

⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected]

Nik Bhatia's Twitter:   / timevalueofbtc  
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB

❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

Chapters:
00:00 Welcome & Bitcoin Market Overview
02:32 Bear Market Breakdown & Market Dividers
06:35 On-Chain Metrics & True Market Mean
10:50 Current Price Levels and Technical Analysis
13:53 Recent Price Action & Support Zones
16:13 Analyzing Leverage, Liquidations, and Emotions
20:22 Market Sentiment & Cycle Reflections
24:44 Liquidity Events and Weekend Price Dumps
28:18 Four Year Cycle & Human Behavior
32:08 Community Reactions & Macro Events
36:10 Who’s Selling? Capitulation and Whale Activity
39:44 Treasury Holdings & Corporate Impacts
41:00 Is the Bitcoin Bull Case Dead?
43:34 Advice for Investors & Risk Management
44:25 Wrap Up & TBL Resources