Mark Spiegel from Stanphyl Capital

Описание: Financial H.E.A.T. Podcast #43

Topic: Spotting Undervalued Growth Stocks with Mark Spiegel.

Hosts: Patrick, Matthew Tuttle, Jeremy Vreeland, Mark B. Spiegel

https://www.incomeblastetfs.com/

Timestamps

00:29 - 04:13: Market Update and Volatility

Matthew discussed recent market swings, Trump’s impact, and holding at the 50-day moving average. Reduced exposure, added hedges. Jeremy noted QQQ levels at 598-602, staying in a bull trend. Mark highlighted the 21-day moving average as a key indicator.


04:23 - 07:59: Investment Strategies in High-Valuation Markets

Patrick asked about conviction in high-valuation markets. Mark advocated for cash due to expensive markets, avoiding VIX trading. Matthew uses options and hedges for risk management.


09:09 - 13:21: AI Sector Analysis: Mark questioned AI’s ROI, citing high costs and Nvidia’s margin risks. Matthew noted AI’s market dominance. Jeremy highlighted no tangible returns yet.


18:25 - 23:16: China and Supply Chain Concerns: Mark avoided China due to untrustworthy financials. Matthew sees opportunities in low-sentiment Chinese stocks. Patrick raised chip supply chain fragility (TSMC, Zeiss).


16:07 - 18:13: Aluminum as an Investment: Matthew and Mark discussed aluminum’s potential (new copper) due to car and AI uses, but Matthew finds Alcoa’s chart unattractive.


27:30 - 29:57: Argentina’s Market Performance: Matthew profited from Argentine stocks but noted recent declines due to political opposition. Small position in YPF (energy).


30:22 - 31:04: Government Shutdown Impact: Mark and Jeremy said markets ignore shutdowns. Matthew noted delays in ETF approvals due to SEC closure.


31:25 - 33:21: China’s Technological Advancements: Patrick cited China’s AI and robotics lead. Matthew and Mark noted cost advantages (e.g., $47M vs. $220M tankers) due to wages and weaker unions.


33:28 - 44:12: Tesla Bear Case: Mark criticized Tesla’s declining car business, unviable FSD, and Musk’s stock promotion. Matthew noted its cult following in Korea but high valuation.


44:40 - 46:29: Crypto Market Volatility: Patrick questioned large crypto shorts before Trump’s announcement. Mark suggested insider trading by Trump’s associates.


47:46 - 49:09: JPMorgan’s $2B National Security Investment: Patrick noted JPMorgan’s plan boosting related stocks. Mark linked it to reduced bank capital requirements.


50:41 - 54:24: Value Investing Viability: Matthew questioned value investing’s relevance. Mark cited studies showing long-term outperformance, with Volkswagen as a deep value play.


55:05 - 56:16: Gold and Market Crash Scenarios: Mark warned that gold is in a bubble. Matthew noted its speculative chart. Value stocks may outperform in a crash but still decline.


56:50 - 58:09: Widowmaker Trades: Mark identified shorting Japanese 10-year bonds and 3X ETFs as Widowmakers. Matthew noted ETFs require careful use.