Crash & Burn Ukraine Russia Diplomacy /Col Jacques Baud & Lt Col Daniel Davis

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Col Jacques Baud argues that the U.S. has consistently avoided direct military confrontation with Russia—especially putting troops on the ground in Ukraine—because of the risk of escalation between two nuclear powers. NATO’s core purpose, they argue, is not primarily deploying troops but extending the U.S. nuclear umbrella over Europe; direct NATO involvement would risk nuclear escalation, something neither the previous nor current U.S. administration wants.

Europe, meanwhile, lacks the military capacity and industrial base to sustain a conventional war with Russia. European armed forces (Germany, France, UK) are described as underprepared, with limited operational readiness and sustainment capacity measured in weeks, not years. The European military-industrial complex is also unable to support a prolonged conflict.

The EU’s recent €90 billion financial package for Ukraine is characterized as largely symbolic and political rather than decisive. Much of the money is expected to flow back to Western defense industries via weapons purchases, and it is unlikely to be sufficient to sustain Ukraine economically or militarily for two more years. The speaker emphasizes that Russia continues to advance on the ground while Ukraine retreats, worsening Ukraine’s long-term position.

The argument continues that Western leaders have known since at least late 2022 that Ukraine could not win the war militarily. U.S. officials were skeptical of the 2023 counteroffensive, and leaked intelligence confirmed Ukraine was not on a winning path. Despite this, the war continued, which the speaker frames as a tragic misuse of Ukrainians to weaken Russia without a clearly defined or achievable definition of “victory.”

Finally, the speaker criticizes European and Western policy priorities, noting that official statements place “weakening Russia” ahead of achieving a sustainable peace for Ukraine. The longer the war continues, the worse Ukraine’s economic and territorial situation becomes, while Russia’s position improves. The overall conclusion is that continued support without a negotiated settlement is deepening Ukraine’s losses rather than helping it.