The Fed is Ending QT: What Happens Next?
Автор: Jack Bowman
Загружено: 2025-10-17
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the National Association of Business Economics annual meeting to accept an award, and in that speech, he said a few very interesting things regarding monetary policy, and specifically, the timeline for quantitative tightening ("QT") coming to an end. It is likely to be in the coming months, he said.
Powell also told us what to look for as the cycle ends. In this video, I walk you through the QT cycle, what to look for as it ends, and what I am expecting with rate policy moving forward.
Interest rates are in decline, as monetary policy continues to unwind from its restrictive stance, and I expect that we still have another 100bp to go until the Fed arrives at a "neutral stance."
However, we are now starting to see the signs of yield curve control ("YCC"). As the labor market worsens and inflation rises, yields across all treasuries are falling. Over the last three months, real yields have fallen. It does not bode well for us.
Sources: FRED, YCharts
New York Fed Ampleness Article: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyor...
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