14.04.2022: World’s largest oil trader to stop dealing with Russian crude. How can it affect RUB?

Описание: The world’s top oil trader, Vitol Group, announced yesterday it would stop trading Russian crude. The company would do it gradually and stop trading Russian oil completely by the end of the year. In this light, global energy shortage concerns have increased, which is not surprising given rising crude prices. Quotes are steadily approaching the mark of $110 per barrel. If the European Union does not find an alternative to Russian oil and gas any time soon, prices may well go above this level. Let’s now turn to our charts. BRENT futures have almost reached the resistance level of 110, which, in turn, triggered a decrease in the volume of long positions. In this light, if the price fails to consolidate above the barrier in the 4-hour time frame, a pullback will occur, and the volume of short positions will rise.
Amid current developments, investors get more convinced that the EU is preparing to impose a full embargo on Russian energy. Given the size of the Russian economy and its share in the global energy market, the consequences are hard to predict. But one thing is clear, the global economy will definitely suffer very badly. Thus, risks are growing along with safe-haven gold and are also weighing on investors who are now doing their best to save their capital. Gold futures have added 3% over the past 6 days. Eventually, the price managed to leave the sideways channel. In this light, the asset is likely to head to its March swing high. Notably, there are always two cycles of any price movement: an impulse and a correction. Therefore, it is viewed as a step-by-step movement.Meanwhile, RUB keeps incurring losses. A peculiar tendency has developed in recent days. Whenever the dollar went above 80, it always fell afterward. At the same time, the weighted average exchange rate grew higher with each new day. However, after the close, the pair always traded above 80. Today, the quote started the day at around 81 roubles per dollar. The stock market seems to have leveled off with the interbank one. The market is gradually offsetting the imbalance. The ruble may well stabilize at current values by the end of the week and try to consolidate above the 80 mark. Further developments will largely depend on whether the EU and the US proceed with restrictions or not. After a prolonged flat in the area of 80, USD/RUB finally managed to update the weekly swing high by rising above 82. Should it consolidate above the mark, the pair would then return in the 82.50/85.00 range. Otherwise, it could get back to 80.
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#commodity_market #oil #instaforex_tv

00:00 INTRO
00:14 OIL
00:35 BRENT
01:00 SANCTIONS
01:33 USD | RUB
01:57 GOLD