Base hits — not home runs — a sound strategy for grain sales for the year ahead

Описание: Grain and oilseed markets are entering 2026 under a cloud of uncertainty, marked by hesitant demand and stable supply expectations. According to Neil Townsend of GrainFox, the dominant theme leading us into this new year is “lower for longer,” as both sides of the market struggle to generate upward momentum.

Townsend points to stagnating biofuel demand, weak global policy signals—particularly out of the U.S.—and stockpiling by buyers like China as key demand-side pressures. On the supply side, strong yields and entrenched production capacity suggest ample global availability, especially if trendline crops materialize in major regions. “People are going to try to yield their way to freedom,” he says, noting that Canadian and global producers are unlikely to back off acreage despite profitability concerns.

Adding to market risk is what Townsend calls a “fear of volatility”—an environment where markets overreact to headlines, even in the absence of structural change. Case in point: the market's sharp but unfounded reaction to developments in Venezuela. “It worries me that we're so spring-loaded to respond to the negative,” he says, warning that similar overcorrections could distort grain pricing in 2026.

In terms of strategy, Townsend sees incremental selling as the most prudent path, especially with sideways pricing likely without a major supply disruption. He also flags export data—particularly Canadian canola shipments—as a key number to watch this year.

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