Where to next for the Aussie dollar | the trade

Описание: US jobs growth accelerates, with unemployment dropping to 4.3% and the largest payroll increase in 13 months. Latest revisions show the US economy added just 181,000 jobs in 2025, a stark contrast to the previous year, enhancing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady. The US budget deficit, according to the Congressional Budget Office, is forecast to climb to $1.85 trillion this year - 5.8% of GDP - and potentially reaching 6.7% over the next decade, well above US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s aim of 3%.

Zoran Kresovic from Blueberry Markets points out the remarkable performance of the Australian dollar, positioning it as one of the top G10 currency pairs. Recent rate hikes by the RBA have provided bullish momentum, with the pair breaking technical barriers for the first time in over three years, suggesting a continued upside as long as monetary policy remains hawkish.

On commodities, Zoran notes a positive trend for crude oil, despite a significant inventory backlog in the US. Crude prices are consolidating, with potential gains if key technical resistance is broken. In contrast, Bitcoin faces ongoing ETF redemptions and heavy liquidations, as crypto markets experience sharp declines. Historically, periods of bearishness have led to further drawdowns before eventual consolidation.