Wall Street Is Building A $2.4 Trillion Bitcoin Market

Описание: Lance Vitanza covers Strategy and Strive for TD Cowen, one of the few sell-side analysts putting formal ratings on Bitcoin treasury companies. He came to Bitcoin through traditional equity research rather than conviction, and he now argues that what's being built on top of these balance sheets is far larger than the balance sheets themselves: $800 billion of Bitcoin collateral could support trillions in digital credit.

In this episode:
✅ Why Bitcoin per fully diluted share is the only metric that matters — owning Bitcoin is table stakes, growing the amount each share represents is the actual business

✅ $15.5 billion raised with a promise to never repay it — how Strategy built a capital base with no maturity date and what that means for the equity

✅ Bitcoin fell from $125K to $58K and Bitcoin per share still went up 14-15% year to date — the clearest proof the model works under stress

✅ The STRC de-peg explained — why it broke, why a chunk of buyers were wrongly treating it like a stablecoin, and why those holders are now gone

✅ Back to par within six months even if Bitcoin does nothing — Lance's forward call, and why a Bitcoin recovery isn't necessary for it

✅ The $2.4 trillion math — how a 3-to-1 coverage ratio turns Bitcoin collateral into a digital credit market larger than most sovereign debt markets

✅ Why concentration isn't the risk people think it is — the market could absorb 30-40% of supply on corporate balance sheets, and the real question is who controls the vote on the code

✅ Strive and SATA — Lance's buy rating and $28 price target, and why a second issuer is what turns a single security into a category

✅ Why S&P 500 inclusion is not the catalyst everyone thinks — the causality runs the other direction, and the index will be the last to know

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Cold Open
01:10 From TradFi Equity Research to Bitcoin
02:55 Bitcoin Per Share Is the Only Metric
06:00 Which Companies Deserve a Premium
08:05 $15.5 Billion With No Maturity Date
09:25 Bitcoin Fell 50%, Per Share Went Up
11:55 Digital Credit: The Second Innovation
14:45 Stretch as a Funding Engine
17:30 Managing a Bitcoin Capital Structure
20:40 Why Convertible Bonds Aren't Flip-Flopping
24:50 2.1 Million Bitcoin and the $2.4 Trillion Market
27:05 From Single Security to Category
31:25 Is Bitcoin Concentration a Real Risk?
34:30 The STRC De-Peg Explained
37:15 Back to Par Without a Bitcoin Recovery
40:55 Strive, SATA, and the $28 Price Target
47:50 What Separates Operators From Tourists
54:05 Why S&P 500 Inclusion Isn't the Catalyst
01:03:35 The Off-Brand Pick

🎙️ Featured Guest:
Lance Vitanza — Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

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