US vs India ‘Tech War’: Why Big Tech Can’t Quit India?

Описание: In this episode, we unpack the US vs India tech war — from H-1B fee hikes and student caps to data-localization fights and cloud slowdowns. The core argument: U.S. Big Tech cannot quit India. India is both a critical market and a massive talent engine, and policy overreach (visas/tariffs) risks backfiring on the US more than India. Meanwhile, India has built a structural moat: decades of services scale (Infosys/TCS era), the GCC boom, a rising product/SaaS wave (Zoho), and public digital rails (UPI, Aadhaar, ONDC). Add the government’s Semiconductor and AI missions, and you see how India is moving to plug infra gaps and lock in digital sovereignty.

Referenced reading (recent):
• NASSCOM/MEA IndBiz: India’s tech sector could contribute US$1T to GDP by 2030; 2024 tech added US$283B (7.3% of GDP); India is the world’s #3 startup ecosystem. https://indbiz.gov.in/indias-tech-sec...

IndBiz | Economic Diplomacy Division

• Angel One (NASSCOM view): India’s IT industry set to cross US$300B by FY26; 5.8M IT pros; 28% of global STEM & 23% of all software engineering talent. https://www.angelone.in/news/economy/...

Angel One

• American Bazaar: Silicon Valley’s innovation is fueled by foreign workers; nearly a quarter (23%) of degreed tech workers from India (2025 Silicon Valley Index). https://americanbazaaronline.com/2025...

The American Bazaar

• Commentary: Why American innovation depends on Indian tech talent (Phil Fersht).   / why-american-innovation-depends-indian-tec...  

Key takeaways:

US dependence on India: India supplies a uniquely deep engineering bench and is an essential growth market for cloud, ads, devices, and subscriptions.

Revenue reality: Across ads, cloud, devices & subscriptions, U.S. Big Tech likely earns ~$20–25B annually from operations in India (working estimate; company-level disclosures are sparse).

Policy risk boomerang: H-1B & student caps plus tariffs/export controls raise costs and slow innovation in the US — because US firms rely on Indian talent pools and India-based teams embedded in product pipelines.

India’s moat: 30–40 years up the value chain (services → GCCs → SaaS/products), DPI rails (UPI/Aadhaar/ONDC), plus Semicon & AI missions to fill infra gaps and push sovereignty.

Symbolic case: Zoho undercuts Big Tech’s suite economics with privacy-first, Indian-centric products; Koo shows the hard realities of network effects — both are instructive for strategy.

If you found this useful, drop your questions/angles for Part 2 (AI + data localization + semicon deeper dive).

00:00 – Intro
00:40 – Tech War
01:40 – Policy Heat
02:50 – DPI Edge
04:00 – $$ in India
05:00 – Talent Reliance
06:10 – Value-Chain Rise
07:20 – Zoho vs Big Tech
08:30 – Koo Lesson
09:20 – Data & AI
10:20 – Localization Fight
11:10 – China Playbook
12:10 – Infra Missions
13:10 – Who Hurts More?
14:10 – 2–5yr Outlook
15:10 – What to Watch
16:00 – Recap & CTA

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