Global effects of nuclear war and the consequences for strategic risk management – Paul Ingram

Описание: As part of the IRDR Monthly Seminar series, Paul Ingram, Senior Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, and colleague Sahil Shah give an introduction to the latest research on the global effects of nuclear war and examine some of the consequences for strategic risk management.

Nuclear winter was popularised in the early 1980s and is thought to have had huge impact on political leaderships of the time, when the global nuclear stockpile was around 70,000 warheads. Interest and awareness has since faded, along with deep reductions in the numbers of weapons. Recent research suggests that the danger of global climatic effects from even a limited nuclear war could be catastrophic, possibly even existential. This talk will survey the evidence and ask questions around what this might mean for government risk assessments, mitigation strategies and strategic postures.

Paul Ingram has several decades experience leading diverse and multicultural teams to impact decisions on existential threats, particularly nuclear war. He was the Executive Director of the transatlantic British American Security Information Council (BASIC) 2007-19, focusing on nuclear deterrence and disarmament issues in the US, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Paul set up and ran the Trident Commission (2011-14) that considered Britain’s future nuclear weapon policy. Since 2019 he has worked closely with the Swedish Foreign Ministry crafting the Stepping Stones Approach. The associated 16-nation Stockholm Initiative for Nuclear Disarmament has become a widely-acknowledged glimmer of hope for the NPT Review process.

The IRDR Monthly Seminar series runs from September to May each year and is open to the public. We welcome guest speakers from across the sector who introduce topics that challenge our way of thinking and encourage us to explore new ideas in an accessible way.