Why Trueblade is the BEST Fire Emblem class. [Commentated] FE10 HM 0% growths chapters 3-12 and 3-13

Описание: This is chapters 3-12 and 3-13 of my FE10 HM 0% growths playthrough, commentated by Original_Raisins and me. They are completed in 2 and 2 turns, respectively.

The likelihood breakdown for ALL of Zihark's tasks in chapter 3-12 is so complicated to the point where it's better estimated by simulation rather than straight math. I simulated enemy phase using a crudely adapted Ruby script originally written by ussgordoncaptain (it's the same script that I used in chapter 1-8). I can't claim with total certainty that it's accurate, as I didn't spend much time debugging errors that I may have introduced, but it looks about right. Someone ambitious may be up to verifying my results.

Turn 1 enemy phase is Zihark's most tenuous turn. He has to face 10-11 enemies and kill all but the last one. I say 10 or 11 because the 10th enemy is the general in this video whom he didn't kill; if he killed that general, that would free up one more halberdier to attack him, which is an extra attack he would have to dodge, but also one less enemy he would have to kill on turn 2.

For enemies that Zihark 2HKOs, the kill is guaranteed. For enemies that Zihark 3HKOs, any skill or crit proc will get the kill. Generals require 4 or 5 hits to KO depending on if they've taken damage from a rock; these guys require an Astra or multiple Adept / crit procs. Zihark enters Wrath at 10 or less HP, which is relevant but never happened in the video. His chance to get a 3HKO by activating anything is 88.5%. If Zihark is in Wrath, this goes up to 99.2%.

Survival is much harder for Zihark because most enemy combinations 3HKO him, and despite best biorhythm and the Volug C support, he's not the dodgiest without growths. Enemy hit rates span a wide range because of weapon selection and random biorhythm, but the ones that Zihark really wants to dodge pull ~40 hit on him. Calculating survival odds is harder than calculating kill odds because Zihark might prevent an enemy attack with Vantage + another proc, which is where the simulation is helpful.

So what's Zihark's likelihood to make it through turn 1 while getting the requisite 10 or 11 kills? It's around 27.1%. It's not great, but it's good enough to gamble on for content. Zihark's equipped skills and the Ashera Icon were pretty impactful:

1. Without Vantage, Zihark's success rate would be 15.1%.
2. Without Wrath, Zihark's success rate would be 24.2%.
3. Without the Ashera Icon, Zihark's success rate would be 23.0%.
4. What if Zihark had a B Volug support? 46.1%.

Vantage makes or breaks this strategy, but the effect of the Ashera Icon is also surprising. +2 luck increased the success rate by 4 pp? And it was more impactful than taking Wrath? i guess Ashera Icons are underrated!

Turn 2 enemy phase is even harder to simulate than turn 1, because although Zihark faces fewer enemies, he fights a variable number depending on how many kills he needs to end the map. Overall, his survival is much less dicey, because he fights 4-7 enemies instead of 10-11. From my recollection, the one enemy he doesn't have to kill is the red general. There's a nearby warrior that he can 2HKO instead, who didn't get to move in this video before the chapter ended.

Putting it all together, the chance for everything Zihark-related to go right in chapter 3-12 is ~10%. Fortunately, Tauroneo's section of the map is not THAT precarious, and the role of the yellow units is mostly to clean up sub-optimal RNG on Zihark's turn 1. On reflection of this chapter, I'm also confident that I could've replaced all of the Brave Axe usage by flying Jill over to Tauroneo and chipping the swordmaster from above the ledge. This would permit Tauroneo to clean house with the forged Iron Axe. It didn't matter in the long run, but it may be of help to someone who's inspired by this strategy but doesn't want to burn so much of the Brave Axe.

What about if Zihark had his growths? A recent shift to the Radiant Dawn meta is the rise of Zihark as a prime Dawn Brigade carry. At level 10/2, Zihark's extra avoid and bulk would be enough to ensure that he almost never dies if given Resolve instead of Wrath. In fact, even without Resolve, Zihark has only a ~5% chance to die on turn 1 with the setup that I used. The extra stats matter a lot. The major difference between vanilla and 0% growths is that Zihark can cleanly 2HKO enemies without skills or crits. He needs to hit 22-23 str and buy a Silver Blade from the armory. Usually this would require an Energy Drop, and a C support with Micaiah or Leonardo can relax the str benchmark by a point.

Lastly, as a consequence of my trial and error in 3-12, ViciousSal confirmed a couple of corrections to how we've thought skills work:
Cancel cannot proc on a different phase than its user's affiliation, so Vantage + Cancel is a nombo
Vantage and Cancel are both actually skl% proc rates, not spd% proc rates
If Astra procs, Adept cannot, and Astra cannot proc on Adept bonus hits (this was already known)