Frontlines: From trade partner to pressure point — Canada’s evolving leverage with Trump

Описание: Canada’s relationship with the United States is entering a far more consequential phase than a typical trade dispute, and how Ottawa responds could reshape North American geopolitics for years. On this episode of the Frontlines podcast, RealAgriculture’s Shaun Haney is joined by Jacob Shapiro of Bespoke Group to unpack Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent foreign policy moves and what they signal for Canada’s leverage with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Shapiro begins by revisiting—and correcting—his earlier view that Canada had little room to push back against U.S. pressure. “I think he’s making a bet that Canada has far more leverage than I was giving it credit, and that actually Canada is the one holding the cards here,” Shapiro says, arguing that Trump’s negotiating style and domestic political constraints give Canada more room than was first assumed.

A key turning point, Shapiro notes, was Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where the prime minister framed the current moment as a fundamental break from the post-war global order. “(Carney said) This is not a transition. This is… a rupture,” Shapiro says, adding that Canada is openly acknowledging that the old rules no longer apply. He describes the speech as “one of, if not the most important geopolitical speech so far of this century,” particularly because it came from America’s closest ally.

This podcast episode also explores how Carney’s outreach beyond Washington—including agreements with China and Qatar—signals a deliberate effort to diversify Canada’s economic and strategic options. According to Shapiro, this approach strengthens Canada’s hand in upcoming USMCA negotiations rather than weakening it. “I’m almost more certain that it’s going to happen because now I think Carney’s going to be able to negotiate a deal that is a little bit better for Canada,” he says.

Shapiro says that domestic politics matter on both sides of the border. While Canadians may be prepared to absorb economic pain to defend sovereignty, he suggests U.S. voters—particularly in Midwest states tied closely to Canadian trade—may be less tolerant. “The median American voter is not going, ‘yeah, you show those Canadians,’” Shapiro says, pointing to political risks for Trump ahead of midterm elections.

Together, Haney and Shapiro frame the moment as a high-stakes test of Canada’s strategic confidence—one that could redefine its role in a more fragmented, multipolar world.


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