Bayes' rule: A powerful thinking paradigm | Julia Galef

Описание: Think via Bayes’ rule to become more rational and less brainwashed.

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Bayes’ Rule is a powerful way to think about evidence, says Julia Galef, co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality.

Most of us have preexisting beliefs that we stick to firmly, unless we have a breakthrough—that is, we encounter evidence that is so overwhelmingly inconsistent with our beliefs that it forces us to change our minds and adopt a new theory. But even then, we don’t always change our minds.

Growing aware of Bayes’ rule produces powerful, fundamental changes to your thinking. Bayesian thinkers view their beliefs as grayscale; they’re not black and white. You can have “levels of confidence” in ideas that change over time, rather than wholesale subscriptions to ideas that never change.

Read the full video transcript: https://bigthink.com/the-well/bayes-r...

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