There Could Be More Bank Failures | Chris Whalen

Описание: Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to comment on the ample and growing earnings of the big banks (particularly JPMorgan Chase, whose stock surged over 7% on rosy net income and increasing deposits).

Whalen argues that banks’ unrealized losses on their securities due to interest rate risk have gone down dramatically as interest rates have fallen since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 10. However, he expects banks’ cost of funds (what they have to pay for deposits) to continue to rise and he makes the case that the primary headwind for banks is not interest rate risk, but credit risk. Whalen argues that while there could be more bank failures ahead, he expects it will be the outlier banks that fail, not the mainstream banks.

This interview was filmed the morning of Friday, April 14th, shortly after large American banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reported their earnings for the first quarter of 2023.
__
Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance
to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.
__
Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor   / vaneck_us  
Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter   / rcwhalen  
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter   / jackfarley96  
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter   / forwardguidance  
Follow Blockworks on Twitter   / blockworks_  
__
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:55 "Banks Have Lots Of Commercial Real Estate Exposure"
06:24 Banks' Unrealized Losses Have Gotten Smaller Over The Past Month
08:25 The Return Of Credit Risk
16:06 Is The Banking Crisis Moderating? If So, Why?
19:18 Van Eck Ad
20:06 There's A Slowdown in Lending
22:08 Quantitative Easing's Distortion Of Bank Balance Sheets
24:32 Chris Suggests The Fed Sell Securities Into The Market
28:27 "The Bid For Risk Free Dollar Assets Is Still Off The Scale"
30:12 Recent Rally In Bonds Has Helped Bank Book Value
36:23 "People Love To Say The Word 'Hedge' And Then Change The Subject"
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.