From Wind & Solar to SMRs & Geothermal: Energy Economist Kenneth Medlock Maps U.S. Energy Policy

Описание: In this episode of Path to Zero, host Tucker Perkins welcomes Dr. Kenneth Medlock, one of the nation’s leading voices in energy economics and policy. As Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, Medlock leads research on global oil and gas markets, hydrogen, and the evolving energy transition.

His latest publication, Energy Insights 2025, brings together top scholars to tackle the defining issues shaping our energy future—from supply chain resilience and energy security to the rise of data centers and the role of innovation in decarbonization.

“What you’re looking at when you read Energy Insights is really a distillation of the research that’s ongoing across multiple verticals within the Center for Energy Studies,” Medlock explains.

Energy Security and Supply Chain Resilience
Medlock opens with a reminder that the cornerstone of energy security is a resilient, diversified supply chain—a lesson repeatedly learned through decades of energy disruptions.

“If you want a supply chain to function in an unimpeded way, you need for that supply chain to be resilient. That means being able to withstand unexpected events—creating new avenues for trade, redundancies in delivery systems, and deepening relationships with multiple trading partners.”

He cites Europe’s dependence on Russian gas as a cautionary tale, emphasizing that diversification—like the expansion of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG)—has become a key factor in global energy stability. The emergence of U.S. LNG exports, Medlock says, has “utterly transformed the global LNG marketplace,” offering both liquidity and security that were previously lacking.

The Future of U.S. LNG
Looking ahead, Medlock predicts continued LNG export growth, as long as the economics make sense. He notes that the global gas market is likely to enter a buyer’s market phase due to abundant supply from the U.S., Qatar, and others—but this is part of a natural boom-and-bust cycle.
“When you start pushing price up, you’re going to see operators go heavy into dry gas development. There’s an elasticity of supply that puts the brakes on price really escalating long term.”
In short, while prices may spike temporarily, North American gas production and cross-border flows from Canada ensure stability and competitiveness for years to come.

A New Look at Nuclear and Geothermal
The conversation turns to emerging technologies and how political shifts could reshape U.S. energy policy. Medlock predicts that advanced nuclear and geothermal could see a resurgence—even under a less climate-focused administration—because they align with energy security and domestic advantage.

“We have a comparative advantage in small modular reactors. They’re deployed on naval vessels all over the world, and we’re at an interesting inflection point where retired Navy engineers are bringing that technology into the civilian space.”

He’s equally optimistic about geothermal energy, drawing parallels to the shale revolution. The same technologies—horizontal drilling, fracturing, and subsurface engineering—are making geothermal increasingly viable.
“Never underestimate human ingenuity. We figured shale out, and geothermal looks very similar because all the supporting infrastructure and know-how are already in place.”

The Complex Reality of the Energy Transition
Medlock cautions against viewing the energy transition as a single, global movement. Instead, he sees it as a series of overlapping “energy transitions,” each shaped by geography, economics, and local resources.

“There’s nothing homogenous about the energy mix around the world. Systems will always evolve, but economics and supply chains matter. You can’t disconnect the future of energy from economic growth or from where comparative advantages exist.”

This perspective underscores that progress toward decarbonization will vary widely—fast in some nations, slower in others—but will ultimately hinge on affordability, reliability, and practicality.

Carbon to Value: The Magic Wand Moment
When asked by Perkins how he would use a “magic wand” to transform the energy landscape, Medlock’s answer reflects a visionary economist’s imagination:

“If I could wave my magic wand, we’d figure out how to make carbon-to-value a viable commercial proposition—capturing carbon and using it in advanced materials so it becomes part of the built environment. That would change the entire conversation around emissions, affordability, and materials.”

He notes that research in this area—from carbon nanotubes to methane pyrolysis—is advancing quickly and could redefine how we think about carbon utilization.

Dr. Medlock encourages listeners to explore Rice University’s Center for Energy Studies website, where they can access Energy Insights 2025 and subscribe to the Energy 360 newsletter.