Connect with John Rothfield, Derivative Logic | Episode 248

Описание: Join us on the Connect Podcast as CEO of the California MBA, Paul, sits down with John Rothfield, a seasoned economist and advisor at Derivative Logic, for a deep dive into the current financial landscape, managing market volatility, and turning economic uncertainty into a clear vision for the future.
John brings a wealth of experience from institutions like Bank of America and CalPERS to the table. In this episode, John offers practical insights on how independent advisors empower lenders to lead, sharing his expertise on interest rates, FX advisory, and macroeconomic cycles.

Key Discussion Points:

• The Current Economic Cycle: John breaks down the high level of uncertainty but surprisingly low volatility in the market, sharing his outlook on stability as we approach midterms and how central banks are working to maintain balance.
• Lessons from CalPERS: Gain valuable insights from John's time at CalPERS, emphasizing the critical importance of independent knowledge, robust processes, and respecting different timeframes when making investment decisions and managing risk.
• Successful Risk Management: Hear two compelling examples of effective risk management, including an economic outlook that predicted market resilience and a corridor strategy that successfully reduced premium costs for a borrower.
• The U.S. Government Shutdown: John explains why shutdowns are unique to the U.S., referencing the three multi-week shutdowns since the 1990s. He discusses the crucial economic data (like employment and inflation figures) that continues to be released and its impact on the Federal Reserve.
• Economic Impact & Rate Outlook: We discuss the potential effects of a shutdown on the unemployment rate and the housing market. John shares his prediction for future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts (possibly in October and December) and his cautionary note about a potential "melt-up" in rates next year.
• Actionable Advice: John advises listeners to act now and take advantage of the current low-interest-rate environment to protect against future inflation risks.

Don't miss this essential discussion for anyone in finance, lending, or real estate who wants to navigate market volatility with confidence.