Bitcoin at $70K: What MSTR Stock Is Really Worth Per Share

Описание: At $70,000 Bitcoin, each MSTR share holds about $104 of Bitcoin net of debt. Here’s where the stock lands at 0.8×, 1.0×, 1.11× and 2.0× mNAV.

849,000 BTC × $70,000 ≈ $59.4B · net obligations ≈ $14.9B · 427M diluted shares → $104 a share
0.8× → $83 · 1.0× → $104 · 1.11× (Thursday’s premium) → $116 · 2.0× → $208
$10,000 in MSTR at $129.30 → ≈ $6,400 / $8,050 / $16,100, vs ≈ $9,200 in Bitcoin

Chapters
0:00 $104 a share at $70K Bitcoin
0:16 The inputs: 849,000 BTC, $14.9B owed, 427M shares
0:56 Net Bitcoin per share and 1.0× mNAV
1:02 Where MSTR trades today: 1.11×
1:23 The $10,000 test
1:39 0.8×: $83 a share
1:55 Why MSTR falls harder than Bitcoin
2:43 Your guess: 2.0×
3:12 The 2.0× answer: $208
3:35 What could make this wrong
4:23 The $1.5B bill
4:34 Where does $104 go at $60K?

Scenario, not a forecast, and not financial advice. Data: Strategy dashboard and Nov 2 8-K; MSTR close Nov 5; Bitcoin prices from Bitstamp.

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