New Middle East The Real Power Struggle

Описание: A new political landscape is emerging in the Middle East. For decades, Iran exerted influence across the region by backing a network of armed proxies—fueling instability from Lebanon to Yemen. But today, Iran’s regional status is significantly diminished. In contrast, Saudi Arabia is solidifying its place as the most influential Arab power. With Donald Trump back in the White House, Riyadh and Washington now share a rare opportunity to reshape the regional balance of power. However, Trump’s team must proceed with caution in the deal it is pursuing with Tehran.
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The Rise and Fall of Iran’s Proxies
Since 1979, Iran’s strategy for regional dominance combined nuclear ambitions and missile programs with what it called forward defence—the creation of proxy militias as a buffer against threats from adversaries like Israel and the US.
Even under heavy pressure—including sanctions and the 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimani—Iran continued to support groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and factions within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMFs).
But the tide began to turn after the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel. Hezbollah, the Houthis, and some PMF factions joined in. Israel’s forceful military response, backed by the US, didn’t stop at Hamas—it aimed to dismantle Iran’s broader regional architecture of influence. And it largely succeeded.
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A Shift Toward Saudi Interests
This decline in Iranian influence is enabling Saudi Arabia to move beyond its recent posture of de-escalation. In 2023, Riyadh led efforts to restore diplomatic ties with Tehran with China as guarantor. But now, with the "axis of resistance" largely dismantled, Saudi Arabia is reclaiming its leadership role in the Arab world.
• Lebanon ended a two-year presidential vacuum with elections monitored by Saudi and US envoys.
• Syria, following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, sent its first post-transition envoy abroad—to Riyadh.
• Iraq signed a military cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia, while seeking to integrate PMFs into state forces.
• In Gaza and Palestine, Saudi Arabia is pushing for unity and has revived the Arab Peace Initiative as a condition for normalizing ties with Israel.
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US–Saudi Strategic Alignment
The US is poised to benefit from deeper strategic alignment with Saudi Arabia. For Washington, regional stability frees resources for other global priorities, especially in Asia. For Riyadh, peace and security are essential for achieving Vision 2030—its sweeping modernization plan.
Saudi Arabia has pledged to invest $600 billion in the US over four years. In return, the Trump administration is showing commitment: redesignating the Houthis as a terrorist organization, imposing fresh sanctions on Iran’s oil network, and helping partners combat Hezbollah’s global financial networks.
However, the US must avoid repeating the Obama-era mistake of brokering deals that inadvertently enable Iranian regional influence.
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What Comes Next?
Uncertainties remain. Syria’s transition is fragile. Iran may escalate its nuclear activities. Israeli strikes on Iran are not off the table. And the Israeli-Palestinian peace process remains volatile. Still, Saudi Arabia is proving adept at navigating regional complexities.
Riyadh’s growing global stature—hosting peace talks on Ukraine and receiving Trump at its Future Investment Initiative summit in Miami—reinforces its emerging role.
A weakened Iran creates space for Saudi Arabia to establish new relationships, rebuild war-torn regions like Syria and Lebanon, and potentially lead the normalization of Arab–Israeli relations. If Saudi Arabia embraces ties with Israel, others in the Arab world may follow.
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A Rare Moment for a Lasting Breakthrough
The US and Saudi Arabia are positioned to engineer a long-term geopolitical transformation. Together, they can reshape the Middle East into a more stable, cooperative, and prosperous region.
But this moment demands strategic clarity. Any new deal with Iran must decisively curb Tehran’s destabilizing activities—not resurrect them. With careful coordination, Washington and Riyadh can solidify their partnership and deliver a legacy of peace and power balance for generations to come.