Contrarian investing in a world drowning in AI slop (plus 2 oddball stock ideas)

Описание: When I last spoke with Orbis Investment Management’s Alec Cutler, the backdrop was one of narrowing leadership and shrinking opportunity. Contrarian investing required patience, conviction and a willingness to sit out a market that rewarded sameness. This time, the tone was very different. Cutler believes the market has finally shifted into a place where fundamentals matter again and where investors who think independently have a genuine edge.

He described today’s environment as follows:

“The market is a fairer place for investors and you are getting more shots on goal than you would have from the end of the global financial crisis through a year or so ago.”

For someone who has spent years warning about the risks of concentration, this reflects not just optimism but relief that the playing field is widening.

Cutler also senses something broader taking shape beneath the surface, noting that “it is a more fun time to invest and the hope would be that we are going to be in a long period like that, which is kind of synonymous with a value cycle.” The giants are running low on headroom, massive capital expenditure is spilling stimulus into the real economy, and long-ignored industries are finally being noticed.

What struck me throughout this conversation was his emphasis on independent thinking. In a world increasingly shaped by consensus, algorithms and repetition, Cutler argues that the real advantage lies with investors who resist the echo chamber. In this interview, he explains why dispersion is returning, why contrarians thrive when consensus forms and where he is finding the most compelling idiosyncratic opportunities today.

TIME CODES

00:00 – Introduction
00:18 – What Alec is focused on now
00:27 – Rotating markets and a fairer playing field
01:30 – Why the market is broadening out
02:04 – Trees can’t grow to the sky and mega caps losing headroom
02:32 – How stimulus and mega cap spending broaden opportunities
03:56 – The mentors shaping Alec’s thinking
04:29 – The importance of creative, contrarian thinkers
05:21 – The rise of AI “slop” and why original thinking matters
05:56 – Why consensus answers from AI fall short
07:12 – Consensus vs no consensus: where contrarians thrive
08:07 – The psychological journey from hated stocks to consensus darlings
10:08 – Two contrarian stock ideas
11:03 – Stock idea #1: Barry Callebaut (chocolate/cocoa cycle)
12:26 – How cocoa supply cycles drive the thesis
12:54 – Inelastic chocolate demand and defensive behaviour
13:25 – Milk vs dark chocolate detour
13:55 – Stock idea #2: Burford (litigation finance)
15:40 – Why Burford’s model works and its 29% IRR
17:32 – The Argentina–YPF judgement and asymmetric upside
19:40 – Final thoughts heading into 2026
20:02 – “Keep your seatbelt on” – Closing remarks