Why Rupee Stability Suffers:Trade Deficit and FPI Outflows Explained | Current Affairs | Drishti IAS

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The Economic Survey of India 2025–26 has flagged concerns over the stability of the Indian Rupee, noting that India’s persistent goods trade deficit and heavy dependence on Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) make the currency vulnerable during periods of global uncertainty. Despite India’s surplus in services exports and remittances, these earnings are insufficient to offset the merchandise trade deficit, causing pressure on the rupee, which recently hit a historic low against the US dollar. The Survey observes that while the rupee is “punching below its weight,” an undervalued currency currently helps cushion the impact of higher United States tariffs on Indian exports and does not pose immediate inflation risks. However, sustained FPI outflows, global risk-off sentiment, and India’s relatively weaker manufacturing export base continue to challenge durable currency stability. The Survey stresses that long-term rupee stability ultimately depends on strengthening manufacturing-led exports, even as domestic institutional investors provide support to markets amid volatile foreign capital flows.

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