Peace or Paralysis: Will Armenia Sign the South Caucasus Peace Deal?

Описание: The South Caucasus has entered a period of relative calm and post-conflict recovery following decades of instability and occupation, particularly in the Karabakh region. However, uncertainty remains over the long-term prospects for peace, particularly regarding Armenia’s hesitancy to sign a final peace agreement with Azerbaijan.
This issue was at the center of a recent episode of Real World Order, a political program produced by the Baku Network think tank. The host, Elnur Enveroglu, interviewed Professor Peter M. Tase, a U.S.-based political scientist and expert on international relations and South Caucasus affairs.
In his opening remarks, Professor Tase praised Azerbaijan’s post-war diplomacy. “President Ilham Aliyev has demonstrated remarkable leadership and diplomatic vision,” Tase said. “Thanks to his policies, the Republic of Azerbaijan has reestablished full sovereignty over its internationally recognized territory, and the region has experienced a new level of peace and stability.”
Turning to Armenia, Tase expressed serious concerns about the current state of its political institutions. He criticized Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, describing his government as “corrupt and incompetent,” and accused the Armenian church of undermining peace efforts. According to Tase, “The Armenian Apostolic Church has often taken divisive stances and promoted narratives that have hindered reconciliation and regional cooperation.”
Tase went further in his critique, alleging that Armenia's domestic governance has deteriorated under Pashinyan's administration. “Democratic institutions in Armenia have significantly eroded,” he stated, asserting that the Armenian leader has spent heavily on lobbying campaigns in Europe to improve his international image. Tase also made a series of severe allegations, accusing the Armenian government of involvement in illicit arms trade and drug trafficking—claims that are unverified and likely to draw international attention.
The professor also warned about Armenia’s strategic dependence on Russia, stating that “Russia is deeply entrenched in Armenian political and religious structures,” which, in his view, hinders peacebuilding efforts. He labeled Russia’s regional role as destabilizing, particularly after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Tase also addressed the future of the opposition in Armenia, arguing that a more active and responsible opposition could play a vital role in advancing a peace deal. He suggested that Armenian opposition parties should “advocate openly and wholeheartedly for peace with Azerbaijan” as a step toward national security and economic development.
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