Why Solar and Batteries Are Still Winning, Even in a Trade War

Описание: When President Trump kicked off an aggressive trade war, a lot of people predicted economic doom. But it didn’t happen.

We’re seeing something similar in clean energy right now: ever-shifting tariffs, half-written rules on foreign sourcing, and the weaponization of permitting. But capital hasn’t fled either. In fact, it increased last year — even as manufacturing investment pulled back.

In this episode of Open Circuit, we dig into new market intelligence from Crux and ask: what does “resilience” actually look like in the capital stack? Where is money leaning in — and where is it quietly stepping away?

Then we turn to the technologies pulling in the most capital right now: solar and batteries. That’s also where tariffs and Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) rules are theoretically most acute — and yet the market is still scaling fast.
We break down the battery boom, what it means for grid reliability, and why some developers are increasingly willing to skip tax credits entirely to avoid FEOC complexity.

Timestamps:
0:00 Cold open
1:00 The trade war analogy — and why doom didn’t show up
8:00 Crux market snapshot: where capital grew in 2025
12:30 Safe harbor and the “170 GW” debate
15:00 Tax credit markets, selectivity, and balance-sheet advantage
27:00 FEOC rules: what’s clearer, what’s still murky
37:30 The Supreme Court tariff ruling — what it actually changes (and what it doesn’t)
43:30 Solar + storage: why the most exposed sectors are still pulling in capital
45:00 The battery boom: what 2025 deployment tells us about 2026
53:00 The new twist: skipping tax credits to avoid FEOC
55:30 Data centers + co-located generation: gas hedge or battery future?
1:02:30 Final takeaways: what “maturity” looks like now

Episode resources:
Read the Crux market intelligence report: https://www.cruxclimate.com/reports/2...
Read the SEIA battery report: https://seia.org/news/united-states-i...

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About Open Circuit:
Open Circuit brings together three industry veterans to decode the forces shaping the next era of the energy transition — from AI-driven load growth and supply chain crunches to market upheavals and policy battles. Hosted by Stephen Lacey, Jigar Shah, and Caroline Golin, the show offers a rare insider’s view into the biggest technological and economic transformation of our time.
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