Why Putin Has No Way Back | Sarah Paine

Описание: Grand strategy, including Putin's own for Russia, is not undone by defeat alone. It is often broken by a single, pivotal mistake.

As Sarah Paine explains, a pivotal error is not just a bad decision — it is a choice that permanently worsens the strategic landscape. After such a mistake, there is no return to the status quo ante. Every option available afterwards is narrower, riskier, and more destructive than the ones that existed before.

History is unforgiving on this point. Japan’s decision to strike Pearl Harbor locked it into a catastrophic war it could not win. Vladimir Putin’s escalation beyond Crimea did the same: what could have been a frozen conflict became an irreversible strategic trap, cutting Russia off from prosperity, autonomy, and long-term flexibility. Once made, these errors cannot be negotiated away.

This is where tactics bleed into destiny.

Paine links pivotal errors to another classical concept: death ground. When leaders push themselves — or their opponents — into situations where survival depends on fighting, compromise disappears. Putin now operates on death ground personally, unable to retreat without political or physical annihilation. Ukraine, by contrast, fights on death ground collectively: defeat would mean the destruction of its people, culture, and state. That asymmetry makes surrender impossible and resistance absolute.

The danger is not confined to past or present wars. Paine warns that great powers can still make pivotal errors — especially when they underestimate how others interpret their actions. Moves that appear transactional or coercive in the moment can trigger irreversible strategic consequences, galvanising opposition and hardening alliances against them.

The lesson is stark. Strategy is not about boldness for its own sake. It is about avoiding the mistakes that cannot be undone — because once death ground is reached, there are no good choices left.

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