Rate hikes possible in 2026, warns CBA chief economist | The Business | ABC NEWS

Описание: Inflation accelerated more than expected in the year to October, according to new monthly figures. The measure the Reserve Bank looks closely at, the trimmed mean rose to 3.3 per cent, which is now higher than its target range. The RBA's target range is between 2-3 per cent.
Headline inflation, at 3.8 per cent came in higher than market expectations, 3.6 per cent.
Some economists think the easing cycle over, while others are warning of volatility in the data.
Commonwealth Bank's chief economist Luke Yeaman is warning that Australia's economy is running close to full speed, creating a headache for the Reserve Bank. He says stronger growth, a resilient labour market, rising house prices and an inflation surprise in the September quarter and October monthly quarters have taken rate cuts off the table and raised the risk of hikes in 2026. He thinks Australia is "getting close to our economic speed limit", with potential growth now lower.

Speaking to ABC TV's The Business, Mr Yeaman said "the question is where to from here into 2026? Do they (the RBA) need to take out a little bit more insurance to keep inflation under control?"

"Our view is that when you look through the inflation surprises that we've had some of those factors driving that are temporary, and some of them look a little more persistent, but there are definitely some temporary factors at play too. So we're still hopeful that as we move into 2026, we'll start to see the economy stabilise and inflation come back towards the target band. But there are certainly risks mounting on the upside."

Even though energy prices have rose on an annual basis by 37 per cent to October, Mr Yeaman says while it impacts households, the Reserve Bank isn't concerned about energy prices, they're "looking through it".
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