Civil War in the West: Insurgency, Legitimacy, and the Breaking Point with Prof. David Betz

Описание: Is the West past the tipping point for civil conflict? In this episode of Hunter’s War, we sit down with Professor David Betz of King's College London for a challenging and potentially uncomfortable conversation about political legitimacy, insurgency, and the fragility of modern Western societies.

After what I find to be an interesting overview of the basic concepts of insurgency and some of failures of modern counterinsurgency, we apply those lenses to the domestic unrest growing in Europe and the United States. Professor Betz argues that the indicators for civil war—polar factionalism, "downgrading," and a collapse of faith in the system—are already flashing red.

The two essays referenced written by Professor Betz are:
Civil War Comes to the West: https://www.militarystrategymagazine....
Civil War Comes to the West Part II: Strategic Realities: https://www.militarystrategymagazine....

In This Episode, We Cover:

[02:12] Defining Insurgency: Why insurgency is a social movement that goes "beyond the law," and how it differs from terrorism (which is merely a tactic to provoke state overreaction).
[13:28] The Evolution of Counterinsurgency (COIN): Contrasting the population-centric approach of David Galula with the "embedded" imperial policing of Robert Warburton.
[23:03] The Imperial Deficit: Why modern Western militaries fail at COIN abroad (the lack of time, deep cultural knowledge, and imperial tools).
[33:31] Civil War Coming Home: The argument that Western societies have passed the tipping point for internal conflict.
[40:55] The Three Indicators:
Polar Factionalism: When loyalty to the "tribe" overrides individual belief.
Downgrading: The fear of a declining majority regarding their permanent loss of status.
Loss of Legitimacy: When the population believes voting no longer matters.
[57:28] Why Wealth Won’t Save Us: The "Expectation Gap," elite overproduction, and why economic stagnation makes conflict more likely.
[1:07:05] Elite Failure: Incompetence, "Quiet Quitting" within the government, and elite defection.
[1:13:17] Mitigation Strategies: If we can’t stop it, how do we survive it? Proposals for protecting cultural treasures, planning for refugee flows, and securing nuclear/bio assets from internal threats.

Quotes:
"An insurgency exists because of a belief within that society that change is not possible within the existing rules of the game."
"Terrorism is about killing a few people in order to get the government to kill a lot of people, which would have the effect of undermining the state's legitimacy."
"We are practicing empire without the tools that empires equipped themselves with in the past to make that work."
"If you want to have a wealthy society... it's not oil, diamonds, gold that make it; it's high levels of trust."

About the Guest:
Professor David Betz is a Professor of War in the Modern World at King's College London, where he has taught in the Department of War Studies for over 20 years. His research focuses on insurgency, counterinsurgency, and the changing character of war.

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