The AI “Money Loop”: Trillion-Dollar Boom or Circular Bubble? (OpenAI, Nvidia & The $300B Gamble)

Описание: Billions of dollars are flying between AI giants like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Nvidia—but how much of this is “real” revenue, and how much is just the same money moving in a circle?
In this video, we break down Circular Financing: the complex web of “round-trip” deals fuelling the AI infrastructure boom. Is this the smart way to speed up the future, or are we repeating the mistakes of the Dot-com crash?
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1. What is Circular Financing? We define the "closed loop" structure where tech giants invest in startups, only for those startups to use the funds to buy cloud services and chips back from the investor,. It’s a mechanism that locks in revenue and compresses innovation timelines, but it blurs the line between organic market demand and engineered growth,.
2. The “Round-Trip” Web: Key Players & Deals We map out the massive transactions at the heart of the industry:
• The Microsoft-OpenAI Loop: Microsoft invests $13bn; OpenAI spends it on Azure cloud credits.
• The Nvidia-CoreWeave Nexus: Nvidia backs CoreWeave; CoreWeave buys Nvidia chips; OpenAI invests in CoreWeave to access those chips. It’s a multi-layered cycle where equity and revenue feed each other,.
• The New Service Loop: OpenAI’s unique stake in Thrive Holdings, where OpenAI embeds engineers into portfolio companies to drive adoption—if they succeed, OpenAI’s equity value skyrockets,.
• Infrastructure Giants: The role of Oracle’s $300bn data centre contract and "take-or-pay" clauses,.
3. The Bubble Case: Ghosts of the Dot-Com Crash Critics warn of "vendor financing" echoes from the 1990s telecom bust. If revenue is just recycled investor cash, demand signals are distorted,. Are we seeing "fiscal incest" (a term from the 1929 crash) or a "de facto Ponzi scheme"?,. The risk is that a single failure (like a data centre delay) could cascade through the entire network.
4. The Bull Case: Why This Time is Different Sources like J.P. Morgan and Acadian Asset Management argue against a bubble:
• Real Cash vs. Debt: Unlike the 1990s, today's buildout is funded by the massive free cash flow of hyperscalers, not debt,.
• Demand is Real: Data centre vacancy is at a record low of 1.6%, and utilization is near 80%—supply can't keep up,.
• No "Dumb Money": Major players aren't dumping stock on retail investors (the "Four Horsemen of the Bubble Apocalypse"). They are buying back shares, suggesting they believe in their own value,.
5. The Verdict: Snake or Anglerfish? Is the market an Ouroboros (snake eating its own tail) or an Anglerfish luring in prey?. We analyze whether external enterprise demand can arrive fast enough to validate the trillions being spent before the internal financing loops slow down.

#AI #OpenAI #Nvidia #Finance #StockMarket #TechBubble #microsoft
#CircularEconomy #investing
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