Trade wars risk escalating into military conflict, with a China-US war implying mutual destruction

Описание: China prioritizes peace but will defend free trade, citing diversified global partnerships and resilience against US tariffs.

Trade wars risk escalating into military conflict, with a China-US war implying mutual destruction. China seeks a peaceful resolution but will defend free trade principles if compelled, asserting:

US initiated the trade war, forcing China's defensive response.

China's reduced vulnerability:
Exports to the US now only 13% of total exports.
Trade diversification with 140+ countries mitigates reliance on the US market.

Economic resilience:
Property bubble "restructured and behind us."
National unity and discipline enable absorbing potential US market losses.

US domestic impact:
Tariff chaos creates business uncertainty, inflation risks, and global deflationary pressures (e.g., diverted Chinese exports flooding other markets).
Trump’s tactics ("Taco hypothesis") normalize escalating tariffs despite partial walkbacks.

China’s rebuttal:
Rejects "panic" narratives, emphasizing strategic export adjustments since 2017.
Warns US consumers/companies would suffer more from severed bilateral trade.

主讲者介绍Speaker introduction

Victor Gao is the chair professor at Soochow University and the vice president of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG). He is also the president of the China Energy Security Institute, the vice president of the International Gas Union (IGU)/World Gas Conference (WGC) 2021 - 2024 National Organizing Committee, and a member of the Academic Committee of the China - Pacific Economic Cooperation National Committee for International Economic and Technological Cooperation.

高志凯，苏州大学讲座教授，全球化智库（CCG）副理事长，中国能源安全研究院院长，国际天然气联盟（IGU）/世界天然气大会（WGC）2021-2024全国组委会副主席，中国-太平洋经济合作组织国际经济技术合作全国委员会学术委员会委员。

Sam Lowe is a Partner at Flint Global, a leading policy advisory firm, where he heads the Trade and Market Access Practice. He is a prominent expert on international trade policy, with a focus on the UK and EU
Sam Lowe是领先的政策咨询公司Flint Global的合伙人，负责贸易和市场准入业务。他是一位杰出的国际贸易政策专家，尤其关注英国和欧盟。