Expect At Least Two Market Corrections In 2026 | Lance Roberts

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Given current market valuations and the prolonged bull run stocks have had over the past three years, investors should expect at least two corrections of at least 5-10% in 2026 warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

But it could easily play out much worse than that, he adds.

Lance and I talk about the likely odds, as well as the latest jobs data, GDP growth outlook, retail sales, the potential impact of the rash of geopolitical surprise developments, as well as his firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

#jobs #marketcorrection #gdp

0:00 Market setup: expecting routine 3–10% pullbacks in 2026
0:48 Show intro and conference invite (Houston)
1:47 Lance’s wife health update (chemo done, great labs)
3:12 Adam’s poker night lesson on luck and markets
5:07 S&P 7,000 talk: breadth rotation vs MAG7 stall
6:08 Value vs Growth: new factor rotation model (80% value now)
9:14 S&P technicals: rising wedge, room to run, not overbought
12:01 Jobs and GDPNow: “Goldilocks” vs weak full-time employment
14:05 GDPNow caveats: gold export anomaly, run-rate math
17:02 Consumer resilience: BNPL, discounts, record holiday online sales
20:01 Eyes-open positioning: upside catalysts vs short risk
22:17 Election-year stimulus: refunds, tariff checks, MBS talk
24:26 Tariff ruling watch: implications for margins and value stocks
29:21 Divergent 2026 outlooks: liquidity cycle vs risk-on case
31:00 Portfolio stance: still overweight growth, adding boring defensives
32:31 International stocks: where (not) to fish and why
37:39 Defense stocks: how to pick, valuations, volatility
41:00 Policy headlines: buyback/dividend talk vs bigger defense budgets
42:41 Expect “unnatural acts” into November; market effects
46:01 Geopolitics and oil: Iran/Russia/Venezuela supply overhang risk
50:05 Power for AI: nuclear timelines, behind-the-meter gas, grid limits
51:49 Seasonals: first 5 days positive, no Santa—expect vol
53:30 Real retail sales flat; pre-recessionary signal?
55:31 Spec mania caution: 0DTE “Captain Condor” blowup
58:03 Recent trades: steady in core; new live factor model launched
58:46 Life rant: Marilyn Monroe, meaning, money vs happiness
1:07:48 Lance’s lesson: partner, family, purpose over chasing dollars
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