Did Innisfil Home Prices Go Up or Down?

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   • What’s Really Wrong With Today’s Market?  


Mark Turcotte

[email protected]

(705) 309-5300

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There are a number of interconnected factors contributing to the ~11% drop year‑to‑date in the Innisfil / Simcoe County real estate market in 2025. It’s not just one thing, but a combination of supply, demand, economic conditions, and buyer/seller psychology. Here’s a breakdown of why things are down (and what to watch going forward):

Key Drivers of the Market Pull‑Back

Higher Inventory / More Supply

Active listings have increased substantially, so buyers have more options. This weakens seller leverage.


Months of inventory (how long current inventory would be absorbed by current pace of sales) has been rising. A higher number here tends to point to a cooling market.
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Weaker Sales Volumes

Fewer transactions year‑over‑year in many segments. Buyers are hesitating.


Some specific drops are large (for example, Innisfil saw a ~44% drop in unit sales in March compared to the prior year.


Price Adjustments / Deflation Pressures

Average sale prices are down in many of the towns in Simcoe County, including Innisfil in some months. While some price recovery is happening in certain types of homes (or in certain areas), the overall trend has been downward.


Sellers may be forced to lower their expectations given the supply/demand imbalance.

Economic Uncertainty & Affordability Constraints

Rising interest rates over the past few years have made borrowing more expensive; carrying costs for mortgages are higher. This reduces what many buyers can afford.

Inflation, cost of living, and economic slowdowns/tightening of lending standards also weigh on buyer confidence. Some may choose to wait.


Tariff uncertainty (at a national / trade level) is mentioned in local media as casting a “cold shadow” on the market, making people more cautious.


Missed Housing‑Targets & Slower New Supply

Innisfil has apparently fallen well short of its provincial housing target for 2024. That means developers and builders are delaying or scaling back new starts, which may reduce future supply but also reflect current caution.


The slowdown in new housing starts can slow down momentum in the market. When fewer people are committing to new builds, there tends to be spillover effects on resale market sentiment.

Seasonality + Comparison Effects

Some months naturally have fewer sales due to seasonal patterns (cold weather, holidays, etc.). Comparisons year‑over‑year may exaggerate drops if previous year had strong spring/summer momentum.

Also, because there was a strong run‑up in prices in preceding years, now the baseline is higher, so even moderate softness shows up as a big percentage drop.

Specifics for Innisfil

Innisfil has shown a mixed picture: sales down significantly YoY in many months; inventory up; prices in some periods down, though in some months “average sale price” has rebounded slightly.


Buyers are more cautious; sellers have more competition. Homes are staying on the market longer.

What This Means & What to Watch

If you’re considering buying, more choice + lower pressure can mean good opportunities. Just be careful about overpaying for homes that haven’t adjusted with the market.

If you’re selling, pricing, presentation, and timing matter more than ever; homes overpriced or poorly marketed will lag behind.

Watch for changes in interest rates: if rates ease, that may help buyers; if rates stay high, pressure remains.

Keep an eye on job growth and local economic indicators (cost of living, inflation) because those affect affordability.

Policy changes (e.g. incentives for housing, taxation, municipal approvals) can shift developer behaviour and supply.


We’re the real estate team that specializes in this local market of Barrie, Innisfil, Orillia, Essa Township and has the reputation for putting you, the client, first. Any time you want information on the market or are ready to buy or sell a property – contact us. There’s no obligation.

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