Merck Q4 2025 - The $75 Billion Secret Hidden Inside Merck’s Balance Sheet (Analyst Autopsy)

Описание: 👇 READ THE FULL DEEP DIVE & SEE MY PORTFOLIO (THE REAL ALPHA IS HERE): https://ashrugcapitalist.substack.com/

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WHO IS THE ATLAS SHRUG CAPITALIST? I am not an algorithm. I am not a hype-man. I am a Value Investing Stock Picker with an 18% CAGR over the last 6 years. I hunt for financial anomalies—buying dollar bills for 50 cents when the herd is running for the exits. I provide deep-dive consultations and analysis for serious investors who are tired of the "Casino."

⚠️ IMPORTANT: This video is just the summary. The true value—the forensic balance sheet autopsies, the full portfolio moves, and the unfiltered philosophy—lives on my Substack. That is where the work is done. Don't be a tourist; go read the footnotes.

IN THIS EPISODE: "The Weighing Machine Has Finally Arrived."

We aggressively accumulated Merck ($MRK) near $78 when the market called us "boring" and chased AI chips. Today, at $121, we are vindicated. But is it time to sell?

In this autopsy, I strip away the emotion and focus entirely on the physics of capital to answer the question: Is Merck a "Sell" or a "Hold"?

WE COVER: 📉 The "Pit Stop" Quarter: Why the Q4 earnings "miss" was actually a strategic masterpiece. 🇨🇳 The China Lie: The truth behind the -39% Gardasil drop (and why it's just a flesh wound). 🐶 The Hidden Crown Jewel: Why Merck Animal Health is worth $75 Billion alone. 🛡️ The 2028 Cliff: Why Keytruda isn't the next Lipitor (It's the next Humira). 💰 Valuation Math: Why we are still buying the "Goldilocks" stock while others chase the "Icarus" trade (Eli Lilly).

"To sell a high-quality asset simply because it has reached fair value is a cardinal sin of capital allocation."

TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro: 18% CAGR & The Weighing Machine 1:45 - The "Kitchen Sink" Quarter Explained 4:20 - The China Narrative vs. Reality 6:15 - Where did the Cash Go? (Investing for 2030) 8:30 - Animal Health: The Hidden Monopoly 10:50 - The 2028 Patent Cliff (The AbbVie Playbook) 13:10 - Valuation: MRK (13x) vs. LLY (50x) 15:00 - The Verdict: Hold, Trim, or Buy?

DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. I am just a man who reads balance sheets, drinks too much coffee, and enjoys swimming upstream. I am buying risk, and I am prepared for the consequences. Do your own research. Remember: A 75% probability means that 25% of the time, I can still be wrong.

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