Hybrid Forecast using our Poisson Model and Soccerstats for football betting
Автор: Quant Channel
Загружено: 2017-01-10
Просмотров: 14263
Описание:
We apply our Poisson model as well as statistics from
soccerstats on a match which came across from OLBG
to see how we do?
So OLBG picks out games which punters feel there is
value in so are interesting to look at. They also let us here
comments from fellow bettors who explain why we should bet
on something and give evidence like this team has
lost the last 5 games and so should lose the next one?
https://www.olbg.com/betting-tips/Foo...
Then we use soccerstats to do our own homework. To see
what the teams involved are like and whether there are
patterns backing what they are saying. So whether loads
of goals tend to be scored? In this case the home team has
won nearly every home game and so would be expected to win.
They score loads of goals are home BUT their opposition have
a very good defence:
http://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp...
We then get the goals rates from soccerstats to plug into our
Poisson model to see what that tells us and we are good to go?
Now we have yet to calibrate the Poisson model so we don't know
whether we should take what it says seriously yet but it seems
good it not great so far? We'll see how it does.
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