John Mearsheimer: Ukraine & NATO Shoving Trump to the Side

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John Mearsheimer argues that peace negotiations over Ukraine are effectively meaningless because Ukraine and European leaders categorically reject all major Russian demands—especially territorial concessions—while Russia views those demands as non-negotiable. As a result, there is “no deal to be had,” and diplomacy is dismissed as political theater. The war, in this view, will be decided solely on the battlefield.

President Trump is portrayed as increasingly hostile toward Europe and intent on reducing or even ending the U.S. military role in Europe and NATO, shifting responsibility for Ukraine and European security onto European states themselves. Strategically, Trump is described as wanting to improve relations with Russia in order to focus U.S. power on containing China, a goal he failed to achieve in his first term due to domestic political constraints.

From the European perspective, leaders are depicted as clinging to a pre-2022 status quo and refusing to accept a negotiated settlement that would require painful concessions. Although restoring relations with Russia and ending the war would better serve Europe’s economic and security interests, the speaker argues this option is politically impossible due to deep-seated Russophobia among Europe’s political center. While far-left and far-right factions are more open to compromise, mainstream European elites remain committed to prolonging the conflict.

Militarily and economically, Ukraine is described as doomed: it is losing on the battlefield, critically short of manpower and weapons, and now sending untrained conscripts to the front. Russia is said to hold overwhelming advantages in drones, artillery, and precision bombs. Financially, Europe lacks the resources to replace declining U.S. support, prompting talk of seizing Russian assets—seen as a desperate and dangerous move.

European leaders such as Macron and German Chancellor Merz are criticized for offering vague optimism about sanctions, undefined “cards,” and a “just peace,” despite no evidence Russia’s economy is collapsing or that Europe can change the military balance. The U.S., Europe, and Ukraine together failed to defeat Russia before; without the U.S., Europe alone is viewed as incapable.

The overall conclusion is bleak: Europe and Ukraine are continuing a war they cannot win, driven by ideology and denial rather than strategy, while the U.S. disengages. The conflict is likely to continue indefinitely with worsening European-Russian relations, setting the stage for eventual defeat and an intense transatlantic blame game.