CRISIL Report GDP forecast

Описание: CRISIL in its report titled Minus Nine Now have said that India would see a deeper contraction of 9% during the current fiscal, down from 5% contraction estimate in May 2020.

India’s GDP for the April June quarter had slipped by a sharp 23.9% due to the lockdown. The report said the downsides to its earlier forecast had materialized, prompting the revision.

With the pandemic’s peak not yet in sight and the government not providing adequate direct fiscal support, the downside risks to earlier forecast have materialized, the report released on Thursday said.

For the second quarter of the fiscal, the report saw growth contracting 12% as most leading indicators were still well below last year’s levels despite sequential improvement through July and August, indicating growth would remain negative.

CRISIL estimated the permanent loss to GDP at 13% or Rs 30 lakh crore. In real GDP terms, CRISIL said the economy would not catch up with FY20 levels until FY22 at least. Beyond this horizon, the report estimated average annual growth at 6.2% for the next three years.

For the only sector with a positive outlook, the report forecast agriculture to grow at 2.5% during the fiscal. It counted a good monsoon spread and healthy kharif sowing as a tailwind for the sector employing 44% of the population.