2026 Brazil: Economic and Political Outlook - Highlights

Описание: The Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with King & Spalding LLP, was proud to organize the “Brazil: Economic and Political Outlook,” which took place on Thursday, January 29, 2026.

Brazil’s October presidential elections are defining the outlook for 2026. Despite sizable fiscal imbalances and persistently high interest rates, a shift toward a more sustainable policy mix remains unlikely in the near term. A resilient labor market and renewed fiscal stimulus — intended to bolster the administration’s reelection prospects — should continue to sustain moderate growth. At the same time, inflation is expected to ease, allowing the Central Bank of Brazil some room to begin a gradual policy adjustment.

Heightened international geopolitical tensions will further complicate the environment for investors, who will remain closely focused on political developments before and after the elections. Brazil is approaching a fiscal cliff that cannot be resolved in an election year but can no longer be postponed. Addressing it will require political determination and significant commitment of political capital early in the next administration. The key question is whether this challenge will be confronted decisively — potentially setting in motion a virtuous cycle — or met with another round of ad hoc, tax-based measures that would weigh on investment, constrain growth, and heighten risks to debt sustainability. The contours of this trajectory should begin to take shape as candidates confirm, or decline, their bids in late March amid a deeply polarized political landscape.

Attendees joined the “2026 Brazil: Economic and Political Outlook,” where a distinguished panel of analysts provided in-depth assessments of the economic trends and policy dynamics shaping Brazil’s trajectory in the months ahead.

Moderators:
• Paulo Vieira da Cunha, Founder, Verbank Consulting LLC | Former Director, Central Bank of Brazil
• Drausio Giacomelli, Managing Director, Deutsche Bank Securities

Speakers:
• Alberto Ramos, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs
• Lisa M. Schineller, Ph.D., Managing Director & Sector Lead, Sovereign & International Public Finance Ratings, S&P Global Market Intelligence
• Felipe Seligman, Co-Founder & Co-CEO, JOTA (Virtually)
• Carlos Sequeira, Head of Research, BTG Pactual (Virtually)
• John H. Welch, Founder & CEO, Research for Emerging Markets, Inc. (REM), Professor, St. Petersburg College (Virtually)

Location:
King & Spalding LLP
1290 Avenue of the Americas (6th Avenue)
New York, New York, 10104

Sponsored by:
King & Spalding LLP

Learn more here:
https://brazilcham.com/events/posts/2...

Recording by Roger Landau for the Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce Inc.

Editing by Lucca Suassuna de Carvalho