Middle East Conflict, Oil Prices & Mortgage Rates: What Homebuyers & LOs Must Know

Описание: Global events are shaking up mortgage rates and the spring housing market. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, disruptions in oil supply, and rising inflation could reverse the recent downward trend in rates - fast.

In this episode of Market Shares, I explain why the Strait of Hormuz matters, how oil prices drive inflation and rates, and why the next 72 hours are critical for markets. I also break down key moves in MBS coupon pricing and what that means for borrowers, lenders, and builders.

Topics We Cover:
How Middle East conflicts impact mortgage rates and housing
The critical role of the Strait of Hormuz in global oil supply
Why oil prices can override typical “flight to safety” market behavior
Best- and worst-case scenarios for interest rates after geopolitical events
How short-term vs prolonged conflicts influence inflation and the Fed’s actions
What happens in the MBS market, including shifts in coupons and rate sheet opportunities
The macro connection: oil, inflation, and mortgage rate movement
Historical lessons from Desert Storm and other black swan events
Practical takeaways for loan officers, real estate pros, and housing market watchers

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CHAPTERS
#1. 0:00 How Middle East Conflict Could Impact Mortgage Rates & the Housing Market
#2. 3:38 Why the Strait of Hormuz Could Push Mortgage Rates Higher | Oil, Inflation & Housing Explained
#3. 6:14 Will War Drive Mortgage Rates Higher? What to Watch in the Next 72 Hours
#4. 9:47 Will Oil Prices Derail Falling Mortgage Rates in 2026? | Housing Market Warning
#5. 13:47 Mortgage Rates Just Shifted | What MBS Coupons Are Telling Us Right Now
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