Live Conversation: Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist CIBC: The Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

Описание: Closing out Season One and a dynamic 2025, Michael LeBlanc sits down with Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC, for a clear-eyed assessment of Canada’s economic reality heading into 2026. Benjamin argues that the Canadian economy is resilient but weak, warns that surging youth unemployment is a dangerous leading indicator, and explains why AI, immigration recalibration, trade tensions, and international policy volatility will play a major role in shaping Canada’s growth trajectory over the next two years.

In this wide-ranging and insightful conversation, Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC, joins Michael LeBlanc to close out Season One of The FEED powered by Loblaw with a clear assessment of where Canada’s economy truly stands—and where it is headed.

Tal opens by reframing the post-pandemic narrative. While Canada avoided a formal recession, he characterizes the economy as “resilient, not strong.” Growth has been uneven, investment remains negative, housing markets in Ontario and British Columbia are in recessionary territory, and recent GDP strength was driven more by falling imports than genuine momentum. Consumers and exports are holding up—for now—but the foundation is fragile.

One of Tal’s strongest warnings centers on youth unemployment, now hovering around 15%. Drawing parallels to the 1990s jobless recovery, he explains that entering the labour market during a downturn can permanently damage earnings and career trajectories. This, he argues, is one of the most underappreciated risks facing Canada today and should be a priority for policymakers.

The conversation then turns to global forces shaping food inflation and affordability. Tal is blunt: volatility—particularly trade policy and tariffs—remains the single biggest external risk. While tariffs are unlikely to disappear, Tal believes political realities will force compromise, leading to narrower, sector-specific impacts. Industries such as lumber, steel, aluminum, and energy face real exposure, while Canada’s auto sector may structurally shrink over time.

On immigration, Tal offers a nuanced and data-driven perspective. He acknowledges Canada overcorrected in 2023 but explains why the current shift toward converting non-permanent residents already in Canada into permanent residents could improve productivity outcomes. These newcomers tend to be younger, unattached, and already integrated into the workforce—delivering a stronger economic multiplier.

AI emerges as a defining structural force. Tal argues that with margins under pressure from deglobalization, labour shortages, and sustainability costs, AI is no longer optional.

The episode closes on cautious optimism. Tal believes stable interest rates, infrastructure spending, and diminishing policy uncertainty could make 2026 a transitional year—weak in the first half, stronger in the second—setting the stage for a much better 2027, provided geopolitical shocks do not derail progress.