Severe Weather Outlooks Are Changing: What You Need to Know w/ SPC's Evan Bentley and Chris Broyles

Описание: On March 3, 2026, Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlooks are changing! SPC is introducing Conditional Intensity Groups (CIG) to their Day 1-3 outlooks, which allow them to provide more specific information on the intensity of severe hazards that they weren't able to convey before. There have been a ton of questions and concerns about these new changes; this video should hopefully answer them. In it, I sit down with SPC meteorologists Evan Bentley and Chris Broyles to discuss these upcoming changes in detail, including why they were necessary, what exactly each of these Conditional Intensity Groups represent for each hazard, how combinations of hazard probability and CIG level will convert to risk categories, and lots more. At the end, I'll also walk you through some examples of the new outlooks and how to interpret them.

Huge thank you to Evan and Chris for taking the time to sit down with me to talk about these changes.

SPC website on the new Conditional Intensity Groups: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/condit...

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Chapters:

0:00 Introduction, brief overview
2:57 Interview with Evan & Chris begins: why were the changes necessary?
5:14 Discussion of Conditional Intensity Groups begins
6:23 Conditional Intensity Groups explained for each hazard
13:31 Probability-to-category conversion charts
26:12 Addition of 75 and 90% wind probabilities
29:51 Discussion of how to convey these changes to the general public
32:52 Viewer questions
36:38 New outlook examples: walkthrough
45:27 Final thoughts

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