Risk Of A 10% Market Correction Now Uncomfortably High | Lance Roberts

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After a rip-roaring rally that began in April, sending the market to new all-time highs, the S&P is now cooling off.

Is this just a short breather before stocks race back to new highs soon?

Probably not, thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

He assesses that the downside risks outweigh the upside ones, and that a correction of about 10% or so is the most likely outcome over coming weeks.

He and I discuss why he thinks so, as well as the US Treasury's version of Operation Twist that launched this week, the future massive potential impact of stablecoins and, as usual, Lance's firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap

#marketcorrection #inflation #stablecoins

0:44 – Lance buying a new house in Austin & long-time remodel/flip strategy
8:26 – Two schools of thought: minimum-down leverage vs. no mortgage / max cash flow
10:05 – When a mortgage makes sense once the nest egg is built (tax deduction + capital deployment)
12:33 – Math of the mortgage-interest deduction: net cost vs. opportunity cost
17:32 – Lance’s positive arbitrage: mortgage rate vs. returns from his hard-money lending business
19:16 – Scott Bessent’s increased purchases of long-dated Treasuries
20:11 – Clarifying it is NOT QE, NOT Operation Twist – just a Treasury asset swap
22:18 – Term premium, flat inflation expectations, and rising oil prices as the real drivers
23:36 – The $8.5 trillion basis trade: hedge funds now own more Treasuries than China + Japan + Saudi Arabia
25:42 – Risk of a basis-trade unwind forcing the Fed back into unlimited QE
27:14 – Administration’s economic-siege strategy on Iran, prolonged high oil, and consumer pressure (Walmart, etc.)
28:30 – Is Bessent’s move market confidence or a warning sign that things are strained?
29:08 – Markets still driven by stellar earnings growth and high analyst estimates
31:22 – Precious metals & Bitcoin reacting strongly to perceived central-planner intervention
32:41 – Is Kevin Warsh frustrated that Bessent is already intervening so early in his tenure?
35:02 – Upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium – Warsh’s first major policy speech
37:54 – Stablecoins as a potential large new structural buyer of U.S. Treasuries
40:25 – How stablecoins solve remittance frictions, expand dollar demand, and reinforce reserve-currency status
46:36 – S&P 500 technicals: overbought, seasonal weakness, 50-day MA risk, midterm election cycle
49:39 – Alignment with Mark Newton: volatility into the midterms, then potential year-end rally
53:13 – Silver breakout from descending wedge + overbought warning (take some profits)
55:42 – Bitcoin & gold also breaking out / extremely overbought – rebalance, don’t chase
1:11:49 - Rant
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