What Generalist Investors Miss: Piper Sandler’s Stephen Scouten on Bank Performance, Credit, and M&A

Описание: Piper Sandler’s Stephen Scouten joins Travillian Next host Andrew Liesch for a grounded look at the state of bank stocks heading into 2025. From rate cuts and deposit costs to CRE fears, credit performance, and the M&A pipeline, Scouten breaks down what generalist investors are still missing — and why management teams across the Southeast feel more optimistic than they have in years.

Scouten also digs into the real drivers of bank valuations, why generalist investors haven’t come back since SVB, how stablecoins and tokenized deposits may (or may not) change the landscape, and which banks he thinks are best positioned for the next cycle.

Watch the full conversation for a clear, unfiltered view of where the banking sector is headed.

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:11 Why management teams are unusually optimistic
02:59 Why generalist investors still aren’t buying bank stocks
04:57 Rate cuts, deposit costs, and the NIM outlook
07:24 Loan growth across the Southeast
08:42 CRE fears vs. actual loss content
10:08 The reality of AI and stablecoins in banking
12:43 The M&A window and valuation tension
16:11 Activist pressure and board-level decision making
18:47 Two banks Scouten likes right now
21:35 Buybacks, sub-debt repayment, and balance sheet moves
23:24 Closing thoughts

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Disclosures for universe of: Stephen Scouten

1. I or a household member has a financial interest in the securities of the following companies: none

2. I or a household member is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the following companies: none

3. I have received compensation within the past 12 months from the following companies: none

4. Piper Sandler beneficially owns 1% or more of a class of the following companies: none

5. Piper Sandler has had a client relationship or has received compensation for investment banking services from the following companies within the past 12 months: AMTB, AUB, COSO, FCNCA, PNFP, RNST, SBCF, SFNC, SNV, SSB, UBSI, USCB

6. Piper Sandler expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the following companies in the next 3 months: FCNCA, PNFP, SBCF, SFNC, SNV, USCB

7. Piper Sandler was a managing underwriter of a public offering of, or a dealer manager of a tender offer for, the securities of the following companies within the past 12 months: COSO, FCNCA, SFNC, SSB, USCB

8. Piper Sandler has had a client relationship and has received compensation for non-investment banking securities related products or services in the past 12 months for the following companies: ABCB, AMTB, AUB, BKU, CADE, FBNC, FCNCA, HBCP, HOMB, HWC, ISTR, OBK, OZK, PB, SBCF, SFBS, SNV, SSB, STEL, TRMK, UBSI, UCB

9. Piper Sandler has had a client relationship and has received compensation for non-securities services in the past 12 months for the following companies: none

10. Piper Sandler is a registered market maker for the following companies: ABCB, AMTB, AUB, BKU, CADE, COSO, FBNC, FCNCA, HBCP, HOMB, HWC, ISTR, OBK, OZK, PB, PNFP, RNST, SBCF, SFBS, SFNC, SFST, SMBK, SPFI, SSB, STEL, TCBI, TRMK, UBSI, UCB, USCB

11. Piper Sandler will buy and sell securities on a principal basis for the following companies: FBK, HTH, SNV