“Bitcoin Is About To Do Something Historic” - Tom Lee

Описание: According to Tom Lee, his team's market projections are supported by data and sensitivity research rather than merely conjecture. Even if something has an eighty percent or ninety percent chance of happening, there is still a risk that it will fail occasionally. They use data to create high-probability statements. An event with a ninety percent chance of happening, for instance, may fail three times in a row, but statistically, it will always have a ninety percent chance of happening.

He was questioned about how he can make eighty percent sure predictions about things like the S&P 500 jumping. According to Lee, surprises frequently lead to significant market movements. For example, Tesla's stock surprisingly surged today. Market value is generally anchored by things like profitability or the Fed's dovish posture, but it can also be weighed down by negative factors like tariffs or recession fears.

In order to measure actual economic stress, Lee's team focuses on credit markets, particularly high-yield bond spreads. High yield spreads only increased by roughly between one hundred and two hundred basis points throughout the trade tensions, despite experts warning of a sixty percent likelihood of recession. Spreads would need to increase by eight hundred basis points over Treasuries in order to indicate a real recession. This informed him that there was no real recession in the market, only a growth panic.

Despite a decrease of Twenty five percent in the S&P 500, high yield spreads indicated that the chance of a recession was only about ten percent. He maintained his positive outlook throughout the April lows because of that discrepancy.



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