Bitcoin Death Cross - Should We Be Concerned? Will history repeat?

Описание: #Bitcoin #BitcoinDeathCross #BitcoinGoldenCross #TA #cryptotamil
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0:00 Intro - Disclaimer

0:20 Charting Tool - Trading View

0:40 Chart Settings - 200 DMA and 50 DMA and 1 day period

1:00 Death Cross Defined
A death cross is a chart pattern that appears when a stock's short-term moving average—meaning the average price over a certain time period—crosses below its long-term moving average

2:00 Golden Cross False Signal
Here in Feb to July 2020 all the signals were fake for both Death and Golden Crosses

3:O0 Other False Signals - Amazon a few weeks ago

3:45 Other Bitcoin Examples
it did pop up but 104 days late
it took another 268 days to fall further

4:15 When it Does Work
Proven to be a reliable predictor of some of the most severe bear markets of the past century: in 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008.
Investors who got out of the stock market at the start of these bear markets avoided large losses that were as high as 90% in the 1930s.

5:12 Bitcoin Death Cross is Looming - it is inevitable and rapidly approaching - it is called Math. An 80% VOL asset will do this.

6:06 Death Cross Yes but RSI Oversold

6:35 Death Cross and Stock to Flow
Big fan of Stock to Flow Model
This time it is different as we are below the expected stock to flow number.
Historically it was above the S2F expectation

8:35 Conclusions
Lots of false signals
Right half the time
Check out Amazon and Bitcoin and Nike
Death Cross works half the time based on history
It has given many false and untimely signals for Bitcoin (history)
It is coming - but that is math for such 80 Vol assets
RSI is oversold
To my knowledge we have never had a death cross while being under the Stock To Flow model expectation

10:00 BEWARE:
Do not trade on TA Alone. Make sure you take into account all fundamentals and MACRO

This is just my 2c - we may fall further but I think this time it is different. The MACRO backdrop is too bullish.