The 2025 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study

Описание: On Tuesday 2 December 2025, the Electoral Regulation Research Network (ERRN) hosted an online seminar on 'The 2025 Australian Federal Election: Results from the the Australian Election Study' presented by Dr Sarah Cameron, Griffith University.

The 2025 Australian federal election was a resounding win for the Australian Labor Party. What explained this result? Was the election result driven by long-term shifts in Australian electoral behaviour, short-term campaign dynamics, or a combination of the two? This talk presented evidence from the 2025 Australian Election Study to evaluate how long-term and short-term factors contributed to the election result. The 2025 election will be placed in longer term perspective, drawing upon the Australian Election Study surveys fielded after every federal election since 1987. There are several long-term factors that have eroded support for the Liberal-National Coalition. Younger generations are further to the left and less likely to vote for the Coalition compared to previous generations at the same stage of life. The Coalition has also lost support from women over the past decade. Moreover, the drift away from major parties has disproportionately impacted the Coalition, with Independent candidates successfully targeting previously safe Liberal seats. Alongside these longer-term factors, several short-term factors during the 2025 campaign negatively impacted the Coalition. This included having an unpopular leader, a poor performing campaign, and US President Trump’s global trade tariffs boosting support for incumbent governments. This provided an explanation of voter behaviour in the 2025 Australian federal election, to understand how short-term and long-term factors contributed to the result.