The U.S. Deficit, Dollar, & Your Investments with Jack Janasiewicz

Описание: “I would want to marry U.S. equities, but maybe I'll date international and emerging markets.”
It’s a fun way to put it, but it still rings true today despite growing concerns over the U.S. deficit, dollar strength, and stretched valuations.

And big tech is leading that conviction.

In our latest webinar, Jack Janasiewicz of Natixis Investment Managers covered this and more, including:

What rising U.S. debt means for the dollar’s strength and its reserve currency status
Current earnings season expectations and whether market valuations are sustainable
Tariffs and their impact on the U.S. deficit and the markets
Government shutdown expectations


00:00 Introduction of webinar and Jack Janasiewicz
02:02 Jack Janasiewicz’s introduction
05:18 Earnings and the Fed: what factor might be a surprise to the markets positive or negative in this coming year?
07:19 What is your expectation for earnings going into 2026? Is it sustainable in this rate environment?
09:22 Do you think that valuations are justified right now?
12:49 Do you see foreign outperforming the U.S. and why or why not?
15:19 If you had to identify one factor that’s the single most understood factor in the markets right now, what would it be?
16:54 How have tariffs positively or negatively affected the U.S. economy and markets?
19:06 How would you expect tariffs to impact the strength or the weakness in the U.S. dollar?
21:01 How would you assess the current performance of the Fed’s dual mandate: price stability and full employment?
23:50 Markets have remained resilient despite rising debt levels. What explains the disconnect between the debt levels, government spending, and the stock market?
28:02 Is there a risk that the ongoing deficits eventually would weaken the dollar’s reserve currency status?
30:07 How do you interpret the current readings of consumer sentiment in the context of employment, inflation, and savings?
32:28 What do you believe are the potential effects of the economy if the government shutdown drags on for months?
34:12 Once the government does reopen, do you think it’ll be a snapback scenario to the economy or something that’ll take some time to recoup?
34:41 How do you assess the current strength of the dollar in a global macro context? Rates, trade, geopolitics?
36:23 How do you expect the upcoming U.S. midterm elections to affect the market sentiment and equity flows?

38:33 Does Natixis have a year-end price target or a 2026 price target for the S&P 500?
40:26 What would you tell investors that are nervous from headlines, social media, etc.? And would you consider changing your allocation, for example, increasing bonds, if you are nervous?
42:19 Where are you seeing opportunities outside the traditional U.S. large cap space?
44:03 Will tariffs directly pay down our national debt?
45:03 Any concerns around private credit headlines?
49:00 Outro

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