"We Simply Do Not Know": Keynes's Defense & Radical Uncertainty (1937) | TGT Ep. 14

Описание: "About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know."

Welcome to the Special Episode (Ep. 14). One year after publishing The General Theory, and frustrated by technical critiques, Keynes wrote a final article to clarify his message. In this revealing document, he sets aside the formulas and goes to the philosophical heart of his break with the classics: the impossibility of knowing the future.

In this masterclass, we analyze:
Risk vs. Uncertainty: The most important distinction in economics. Risk can be calculated (like roulette); uncertainty cannot (like the price of copper in 20 years).
The Benthamite Error: Keynes attacks the idea that rational man can optimize his future through a "calculus of consequences." How do you optimize when you don't know what will happen?
The Fragility of Conventions: If we know nothing, how do we act? We copy others. But when the crowd panics, the convention collapses.
Money as a Sedative: The final explanation. We hoard money not because we are greedy, but to lull our disquietude in the face of the "dark forces of time and ignorance."

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SOURCE: Keynes, J.M. (1937). The General Theory of Employment. Quarterly Journal of Economics.

🔔 The author's final word. This was the last time Keynes defended his full theory before his illness and the war. But after his death, his followers took a different path. In the next episode, we explore the "translation" of his work: The Neoclassical Synthesis. Subscribe.