NC-11 race could depend on independent votes, national politics: former NC Rep. Shuler

Описание: As the race for North Carolina's 11th Congressional District shifts toward the general election, the last Democrat to hold the seat says the outcome could hinge on independent voters, national political winds and how candidates connect with communities across western North Carolina.

Heath Shuler, a former NFL quarterback who represented the district in Congress from 2007 to 2013, spoke with News 13 about the upcoming matchup between Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards and Democratic challenger Jamie Ager.

Shuler said while local issues matter, broader national political trends could shape the race.

"One of the most important things is what's the environment nationally?" Shuler said. "What's the temperature of the country? Is it leaning Democrat or leaning Republican? I think that's going to have a high percentage of the outcome of this year’s election."

Shuler, who defeated Republican Charles Taylor in 2006 and served three terms in Congress, remains the last Democrat to win the district. Since he left office in 2013, the seat has been held by Republicans.

The district, which stretches across much of western North Carolina, has shifted politically over the past decade. Shuler said some of the region's rural counties have grown more Republican, while population growth and migration into places like Buncombe and Henderson counties have brought more Democratic voters.

Still, he said the deciding factor in the race will likely be voters who are not strongly aligned with either party.

"The one that people always leave out is the independent vote," Shuler said. "Those individuals actually decide the election in the 11th District."

Shuler said winning the seat requires building a coalition across very different communities, from Asheville to rural mountain counties.

"There's a big difference between Buncombe County and Swain County," he said. "There's a big difference between Buncombe County and Madison County. The issues that matter to people can vary from community to community."

Shuler said candidates must also demonstrate relatability and authenticity to voters.

"I feel that everyone's kind of tired of the political parties," he said. "They're tired of Democrats or tired of Republicans. It's really going to come down to the person — the individual that they feel best suits the community in the 11th District."

Shuler pointed to Ager's background as a farmer and business owner as a potential way to connect with voters outside urban areas.

"Being a business person, being a farmer — that connection is going to help him with independent votes and Republican votes in the district," Shuler said. "Being relatable, that's what's going to win the election."

Shuler also said outside political spending could increase as national groups look to influence the race.

"Oftentimes when the national parties come in, you'll have both sides fighting because the margins of victory in Washington are important," he said.

However, he warned that outside advertising can sometimes overshadow local priorities.

"It'll all be about negativity," Shuler said. "It won't be anything that's a good value and tells you the real story about the individual that’s running for office."

Looking ahead to November, Shuler said candidates should focus on representing the entire region rather than their political party.

"When you're elected to that office, you don't represent a political party," he said. "You represent the people of western North Carolina."
Shuler said the general election will likely center on local issues such as Hurricane Helene recovery, which affected communities across the region.

"It certainly is a point of emphasis and something that impacted almost every single person in western North Carolina," he said.

#congress #politics #election

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