House Control by the Numbers: How Big Is the Democratic Majority? 19 Seats Not Called

Описание: House control by the numbers: how big will the Democratic majority be? Every House seat called so far, the 19 races still NOT CALLED by the AP, the recount lines and dates, and what each majority size changes. As of Sunday, 8 Nov 2026.

CALLED (AP race calls, as of Sat 7 Nov; no newer AP change found Sunday evening): Democrats 254, Republicans 162, not called 19. 218 = a majority.

16 OF THE 19 OPEN RACES WE COULD NAME (latest unofficial counts we found, NOT CALLED):
Democrats lead: CO-4 Laubacher +3,237 over Rep. Boebert (AP via NYT, 7 Nov); MN-1 Jake Johnson +323 over Rep. Finstad (recount under 0.25%, canvass 19 Nov); NC-5 Hubbard +99 over Rep. Foxx (1,511-3,117 provisionals); TN-4 Broderick +280 over Rep. DesJarlais (local outlets report her win; no AP call found); FL-9 Rep. Soto +1,506.
Republicans lead: FL-27 Rep. Salazar +1,090 (machine recount, results Thu 12 Nov 3 p.m.); FL-7 Elijah +1,631 (0.503%, no recount); FL-26 Rep. Diaz-Balart +1,704; NC-3 Rep. Murphy +233; NC-7 Rep. Rouzer +2,425; AZ-2 Rep. Crane about +1.2 pts (Fri); WA-5 Rep. Baumgartner nearly +5,000 (Thu); ME-2 LePage 49.9% vs Dunlap 48.3% (ranked-choice rounds Mon 9 Nov; Dunlap conceded); AK-AL Rep. Begich 49.9% vs Bill Hill 40.1% (election night; ranked choice 18 Nov).
Runoffs Sat 12 Dec: LA-5 Pat Moore (D) vs Gabe Firment (R); LA-6 Chauna Banks (D) vs Blake Miguez (R), 665 votes apart in the primary.
AP has published no list we could open; 3 of its 19 are not identified here.

RECOUNT LINES: NC may request within 1%; FL automatic machine recount at 0.5 pt; AZ automatic at 0.5%; WA automatic under 2,000 votes and 0.5%; CO automatic within 0.5% of the leader's votes (about 930 in CO-4); MN state-paid on request under 0.25%; TN none (court challenge).

DATES: 9 Nov ME-2 RCV. 10 Nov House GOP leadership vote (Scalise vs Jordan). 12 Nov FL-27 recount results. 13 Nov NC county canvass, CO counties finish. 17 Nov FL certifies. 18 Nov AK ranked choice. 18-19 Nov House Democratic leadership votes. 19 Nov MN canvass. 23 Nov AZ canvass. 24 Nov NC state canvass. 12 Dec LA runoffs. 3 Jan new House and Speaker vote.

THE RANGE (arithmetic, not a forecast): Democrats 254 to 273; Republicans 162 to 181.
Votes a majority can lose with all 435 voting: 2 at 220 seats, 36 at 254, 55 at 273.
Speaker: a majority of votes cast for a person by name (CRS R44243). At 254, Jeffries could lose 36 Democrats and still win. January 2023 took 15 ballots.
Discharge petition: 218 signatures (CRS R45920); 4 reached it in 2025, incl. the Epstein files. A GOP petition would need 37 to 56 Democrats.
Committees: ratios are a decision of the majority leadership (CRS R40478). Ways and Means 26-15 (2009), 24-16 (2017); Rules 9-4 both.
254 is the largest majority for either party since 2009 (256); 257+ would be the largest since 1993.

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro
0:26 The seats already called
0:53 19 not called: where Democrats lead
2:27 Where Republicans lead
3:40 Runoffs, recounts and deadlines
4:27 254 to 273: the range
4:58 What the size changes
5:59 What each side says
6:52 Recap

Ballot Brief calls no races and takes no side. Figures are unofficial; nothing here is a prediction.

Sources: AP (via Yahoo News, Anadolu Agency, NYT); Fox News results page; CBS News; Florida Politics; FOX 35; WLRN; 9NEWS; Denver Gazette; MPR News; Post Bulletin; Yahoo News; StarNews; WCTI; Nashville Banner; azfamily; Spokesman-Review; Maine Public; Alaska Beacon; WWNO; WAFB; State Capital Lobbyist; Scripps News; Latin Times; CRS R40478, R44243, R45920; U.S. Constitution

Photos: public domain / CC0 / Wikimedia Commons, except as credited.
Photo credits (CC): "Maine State House, Augusta ME.jpg" by Carol Boldt, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
"Anchorage AK from Chugach State park.jpg" by C Watts, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
Portraits: "Paul_LePage_by_Gage_Skidmore.jpg" by Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
"Matt_Dunlap_(cropped_headshot).jpg" by VM143, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
Narration uses an AI voice.

#HouseControl #HouseResults #UncalledRaces