Uncertainty Is Rising… and So Is the Opportunity

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When fear grips the consumer, people tend to panic and act on emotion. But these are often the moments that lead to some of the biggest wealth-building opportunities of our lifetime. In today’s Stock Market Brief, I’ll walk you through what’s really going on beneath the surface.

We cover the recent spike in hard landing expectations, the massive gap between Wall Street targets, and how institutions are pulling back while retail continues to chase upside. I’ll show you what CTAs and vol control funds are doing, and why their behavior might be setting the stage for a major shift. We’ll also take a look at extreme sentiment readings and consumer stress data that we haven’t seen since the Great Financial Crisis and the pandemic.

We go deep into the Michigan sentiment survey, economic expectations, inflation outlook, and credit card delinquencies. I’ll also cover how to interpret the Fed’s recession probability models and why the setup today resembles past major turning points.

From the gamma flip line to the VIX term structure, the yield curve to backwardation, and key levels on the S&P 500 and NVDA, I’ll show you how I’m approaching this environment from a risk-first perspective. We wrap up by reviewing bottom-finding indicators that have helped mark pivots in the past.

If you want to be prepared for when opportunity strikes, this is the episode to watch.

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