Are Tariffs Breaking Global Shipping Again? Freight Rates, E-commerce, and Chaos Explained

Описание: -In this episode of The Freight Debate, host Philip Hennessey sits down with Xeneta Senior Analyst Emily Stausbøll to unpack the current state of global shipping and its increasingly unpredictable pricing landscape. With the return of tariff volatility and collapsing freight demand on key routes, tariff volatility and freight demand are two of the most critical issues shippers face in 2025.

Tariff volatility and freight demand continue to rattle supply chains across industries. In this episode, Philip and Emily explore what recent policy shifts—particularly the U.S. tariff letters aimed at China, the EU, and Brazil—actually mean for global logistics. They also dig into how shippers are reacting differently compared to earlier shocks like the “Liberation Day” rate surge in April.

Key insights from the episode:
How newly proposed tariffs (and the fear of enforcement) have impacted demand, even without implementation
Why shippers seem more desensitized to 10–30% duties than ever before
How early front-loading has reduced panic responses to new policy threats
The lag between policy announcements and cost impacts—why it’s hurting even when tariffs are paused

Emily breaks down the shifting dynamics in regional shipping routes. While the Far East to U.S. West Coast lane has seen a steep 57% decline in spot rates since June, North Europe lanes are surging—up 37%—due to congestion, labor disputes, and late vessel arrivals. These contradictory moves reveal just how fragmented global shipping has become, and why understanding demand fundamentals is more important than ever.

Also discussed:
The recent “calm” in rate activity, and why it might be a deceptive lull

May’s surprising record-high global TEU movement—and why it didn’t sustain

-What port congestion tells us about carrier strategy and capacity imbalance

-How shippers can (and should) prepare for 2026 budgets amid ongoing volatility


Philip and Emily emphasize the importance of using market data and forward-looking rate indexes to avoid getting blindsided by short-term spikes or dips. They outline how shippers can use Xeneta’s spot and contract rate data to better plan for uncertain quarters ahead—and why relying on index-linked contracts could offer more pricing resilience.

If you’re involved in procurement, ocean logistics, or executive supply chain planning, this episode will sharpen your understanding of the forces shaping freight rates globally. From tariffs to trade policy, from congestion to contracts, you’ll walk away with a clearer view of what’s next—and what to do about it.


Timestamp Topics
[00:00] Why tariffs are back in the headlines
[02:15] Are 10–30% duties the new normal?
[05:00] What happened after Liberation Day
[07:30] Are shippers reacting too calmly now?
[09:45] Why rates fell 57% from June highs
[13:10] Congestion chaos in Europe: strikes, delays, and rate hikes
[15:40] Is front-loading over for 2025?
[18:00] Should shippers even try to budget for 2026?
[21:30] Why index-linked contracts are gaining traction
[24:00] What to watch next: signals for Q4 market behavior