Nate Silver's Predictions for the 2016 Election | Republican Candidate

Описание: Nate Silver's Predictions for the 2016 Election | Republican Candidate 2016

Here are several lessons for the 2016 presidential elections from prognosticator Nate Silver, founder of the phenomenally accurate FiveThirtyEight.com. He spoke Thursday at the Mackinac Policy Conference

EXPECT A CLOSE RACE: The nomination of Democrat Hillary Clinton is inevitable, but the general election will be a toss-up.

TOO FEW CANDIDATES, TOO MANY: Democrats have a weak bench and Republicans have a five-ring circus of overlapping candidates between moderate, establishment, Christian conservative, tea party and Libertarian. "It's a real fight for space."

IN TROUBLE ALREADY: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is definitely in trouble and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is possibly in trouble. "Its very difficult to win the primary when most of the voters don't like you," Silver said of Christie.

NO BLUE WALL: Democrats shouldn't count on a blue wall or demographic shifts to continue winning the presidency. And there is some benefit for Republicans to nominate a moderate for president.

POLLING'S PAINS: Polling is becoming more and more problematic with fewer and fewer people willing to talk to pollsters.

A DIVIDED AMERICA: Polarization is the most important trend in American politics. "There are 30 states you can predict with 95% certainty or higher on how they're going to vote. It didn't always be that way."

Other Mackinac predictions

Who will be the next president? If you trust former U.S. Rep. Harold Ford, a Tennessee Democrat, and Republican-leaning author Dan Senor, it will be former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush or U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.

The two political pros made the predictions Thursday at the Mackinac Policy Conference, sponsored by the Detroit Regional Chamber.

Clinton's problems with e-mails and Benghazi is just "background noise," said Ford, now a political analyst with MSNBC and CNBC. While Bush will overcome the heritage of his presidential father and brother through experience and superior fund-raising, predicted Senor.
Rubio also could open up the Republican party to a wider demographic, Senor added, noting he thinks Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas will do well in the early primary states and could break through.