Naira Strengthens to ₦1,350/$ — Can Gains Last?

Описание: The Nigerian naira has opened 2026 on a firmer footing, trading near ₦1,350 per dollar, with official exchange rates showing improved stability compared to recent volatility. Market participants attribute the renewed confidence to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s calibrated auction strategies and the full-scale operation of the 650,000-barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which is reducing pressure on foreign exchange demand by reducing reliance on imported refined products.
Improved FX liquidity, tighter monetary coordination, and stronger market sentiment have supported the currency’s rebound. However, analysts warn that rapid appreciation could introduce new risks. A stronger naira may weaken export competitiveness, compress fiscal buffers for federal and state allocations, and heighten vulnerability if gains are driven primarily by short-term capital inflows rather than sustained productivity growth.
Is this the beginning of long-term currency stability, or a temporary rebound shaped by liquidity management and market flows? Oladipo Ajayi, Head of Fixed Income and Forex at Chapel Hill Denham, joins us to analyse the sustainability of the naira’s momentum and what investors should watch closely in the months ahead.
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